Melton, Friday 20 September
Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: PROHIBITED BID (12) is a smart former New Zealand trotter, which made an error and lost her winning chance but still ran a good race at her latest sixth. She will prove hard to beat if she delivers a fool proof display. FREIGHT SHAKER (11) also struck bother in his heat performance and wasn’t able to qualify for the Final. His form prior was very strong so he is worth another chance. DALEY WATERS (1) possesses early pace and will appreciate his best draw for some time. He is a speedy type and is worth a ticket each way. WE CAN HAVE IT ALL (3), LINK IN BIO (5), MAC FLICK (6) and MIDNIGHT EAGLE (8) are all capable of showing up without surprising.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely early leader), 3,5,7
SELECTIONS: PROHIBITED BID (12), FREIGHT SHAKER (11), DALEY WATERS (1), WE CAN HAVE IT ALL (3)
RATINGS: 12/ 11/ 1,3,8/ 5,6
SUGGESTED BET: PROHIBITED BID (12) to win
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: VICI BLOOM (1) was resuming since July when a handy sixth in a heat of this series, where she endured a tough run and battled on well. She should be fitter and is perfectly drawn so she appears to be a good value bet. IZARRA (8) led throughout at a Melton victory on August 30 then battled on well at her latest fifth behind Exalted at Geelong. She has a nice trailing draw behind VICI BLOOM (1) and should run a good race. MINIMEZ (3) is a consistent mare, which won at Terang on August 14. She had little luck from the inside of the second row in her heat effort at Geelong and looms as a strong winning chance under these conditions. PARIS JAMILLA (2) is a fast beginner from the mobile and races best when she is close to the speed. She is a strong mare that will prove hard to catch if she can find the lead.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,5
SELECTIONS: VICI BLOOM (1), IZARRA (8), MINIMEZ (3), PARIS JAMILLA (2)
RATINGS: 1/ 3,8/ 2/ 6,9/ 11
SUGGESTED BET: VICI BLOOM (1) each way
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: EZRA KAI (11) commenced as the $1-40 popular elect in his heat of this series but struck bother and lost his chance to qualify for the Final. He led throughout when a big winner at Shepparton prior and he is clearly the horse to beat. MAJIC VALLEY (1) was a winner over EZRA KAI (11) at Shepparton in June and has the speed to be in the finish. She worked hard early then gained a trail and finished eighth in her heat of this series but she is worth another chance. NIPOTINA (3) has been placed in six of her nine starts for the season and struck trouble in her heat performance. She is an honest filly and is worth an investment. THE DARK THUNDER (6) and I AM HELLBOUND (8) are both racing well enough to figure in the finish.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely early leader), 6
SELECTIONS: EZRA KAI (11), MAJIC VALLEY (1), NIPOTINA (3), I AM HELLBOUND (8)
RATINGS: 11/ 1,3/ 8/ 6
SUGGESTED BET: EZRA KAI (11) to win
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: REMUS PHOENIX (7) finished off strongly to win at Melton three starts ago then endured a tough run when a creditable fourth behind Derek The Jet in the Holmfield. He broke stride last outing and is worth another chance. CENTURION DREAM (1) is an honest mare, which ran a game race for second in the Shepparton Oaks. She was left stranded without cover in her heat performance and should be competitive against this class. DREAMS OF LOVE (5) is a promising maiden, which has been placed in five of her seven starts to date. She worked forward to find the lead and finished third behind Ringer Wells last outing and she should run her usual honest race. KEAYANG TWEETYBIRD (10) struck trouble when unplaced at her first start since a fourth in the Nutrien Final. She has a few gait issues but has performed well at the trials since her latest run and she is a classy filly when she is able to put it altogether.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 4,5,7
SELECTIONS: REMUS PHOENIX (7), CENTURION DREAM (1), DREAMS OF LOVE (5), KEAYANG TWEETYBIRD (10)
RATINGS: 7/ 1/ 5,10/ 11/ 12,13
SUGGESTED BET: REMUS PHOENIX (7) to win
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: I DREAM OF MILLIE (2) was held up for a run at a vital stage and finished off solidly for second behind the in-form trotter I’m Bobby at Melton then had little luck in her heat of this series. She is ideally drawn and appears to be a strong winning chance. SUGA DADDY (9) has been placed in eight of his past nine starts, including five victories and he competed in the Grand Final won by The Locomotive on Saturday night so he should prove hard to beat. LADY VICI (4) has won at her past five starts and has the ability to mix it with this class. Her trial form has been a little mixed but she is too good to dismiss. DOSSIER (3), THAT’S DUDLEY (7) and THAT’S YOUR OPINION (11) are all worth thought in multiple combinations.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (possible leader), 2,3
SELECTIONS: I DREAM OF MILLIE (2), SUGA DADDY (9), LADY VICI (4), THAT’S YOUR OPINION (11)
RATINGS: 2/ 4,9/ 11/ 3,7
SUGGESTED BET: I DREAM OF MILLIE (2) to win
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: BOUTIKA (2) was headed off at the start and was shuffled back on the markers when a creditable third behind All The Trix at Melton last outing. She is dropping back from a National Rating 80 event to this National Rating 49 race so it is a massive drop back in class and she should take beating. MY HIGH PEAK (6) is a fast beginner and performs best when he is close to the speed. He has been placed in five of his past six starts and worked very hard to find the lead at his latest seventh so he must be included amongst the leading chances. BLANCO CANYON (9) is shooting for a winning hat trick and is a chance of completing the task. He missed away and was a clear last early when a big winner at Cranbourne last outing. KYVALLEY PAINT (4) was runner up under similar conditions last outing and TEN NO SPUR (5) finished off quickly at his past two attempts.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible early leader), 2,4,6,7
SELECTIONS: BOUTIKA (2), MY HIGH PEAK (6), BLANCO CANYON (9), TEN NO SPUR (5)
RATINGS: 2/ 6,9/ 5/ 4/ 1
SUGGESTED BET: BOUTIKA (2) to win
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: BLACK TUXEDO (9) progressed forward to race without cover and battled on well when third at Cranbourne when resuming then followed with a close second at Kilmore. He has returned from a spell in great form and is ready to break through for a win. JUDES DUDE (10) continues to race consistently and looms as one of the leading chances. He endured a tough run when second behind Oscar Bravo at Cranbourne on September 08. OUR TRUE COLOURS (6) worked forward to find the lead and held off the challenge of Nai Harn Bay (won twice since) at Melton on August 02. This race is no harder and she is worth thought again. CALYPSO MISTRESS (1) is a fast beginner and has been placed in two of her past three starts under similar conditions so she is worth thought from the pole position.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 4,5,6,7
SELECTIONS: BLACK TUXEDO (9), JUDES DUDE (10), OUR TRUE COLOURS (6), CALYPSO MISTRESS (1)
RATINGS: 9,10/ 6/ 1,4,8
SUGGESTED BET: BLACK TUXEDO (9) each way
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: OUR KINKY BOOTS (9) has been racing consistently and appears to be well placed against this opposition. She led out then took cover and finished second behind General Lincoln in fast time at Yarra Valley last outing. ISLAND CAESAR (7) has struck peak form with recent victories at Cranbourne and Kilmore. He is widely drawn but possesses early speed and should run another forward race. MIDNIGHT DANCER (6) lost form at the end of her last campaign and was spelled. She was a winner at Terang four starts ago and strikes a suitable assignment first up. TOPHUT JOHNY (8) is awkwardly drawn but he is usually competitive against this class and should be finding the line nicely.
EARLY SPEED: 7 (possible leader), 2
SELECTIONS: OUR KINKY BOOTS (9), ISLAND CAESAR (7), MIDNIGHT DANCER (6), TOPHUT JOHNY (8)
RATINGS: 9/ 6,7/ 8/ 2,5,10
SUGGESTED BET: OUR KINKY BOOTS (9) to win
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: THE STEEL DRAGON (6) ran a top race when second behind the Super Series Finalist Marlo Mareau at Bendigo on his debut. He should have benefited from the experience and is capable of going one better. AMERICAN VICTORY (3) is a first starter for trainer Vin Mahar, which finished fourth at a Melton trial performance a month ago and must be kept safe. CARLY PEREZ (1) trailed the leader and used the sprint lane when a close up second behind Majors Creek at Bendigo last outing. She is ideally drawn and looms as one of the leading chances. KALKADOON DREAMING (9) finished off well for second in a mile rate of 1.58.1 at Bendigo last outing. He has retuned from a spell in good form and is worth an investment.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,3,5
SELECTIONS: THE STEEL DRAGON (6), AMERICAN VICTORY (3), CARLY PEREZ (1), KALKADOON DREAMING (9)
RATINGS: 6/ 1,3/ 8,9/ 5/ 7
SUGGESTED BET: THE STEEL DRAGON (6) to win
