Ballarat, Thursday 19 March
Form Analysis by Bronte Nieuwenburg
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: ARE WEASLEY (4) has placed in four of his last five this campaign. In his other run he was unlucky. He had to do it tough last start at Charlton and battled on really well. He can make his own luck. FINAL PROMISE (10) is racing better than his form suggests. He has been unlucky at his three runs back this campaign. He should be fully fit now and comes from the leading Jess Tubbs–James Herbertson combination. SHAZZA LOVE (11) is a good sit-sprinter and hit the line strongly last start at Bendigo. If she can find some luck and get a good run into the race, she will be flashing home. LIVERMERE (1) is the winner of the barrier draw. She has brilliant gate speed and will map well.
SELECTIONS: ARE WEASLEY (4), FINAL PROMISE (10), SHAZZA LOVE (11), LIVERMERE (1)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: THEROUX (10) was first up last start when second at Kilmore. He was caught back in the field and rattled home impressively. It was an eye-catching run and he will have improved with fitness. BOND GIRL (3) has been unlucky or had tough runs recently and has been performing better than it looks on paper since joining the Sam Barker stable. If she can map well, she is a winning chance. STAR RULER (9) is an older horse who has recently moved to the Kyle Marshall stable. Older horses can appreciate a change of scenery and he was very good last start the way he hit the line. He has a good barrier to follow through into a nice position. QUICK DECISION (6) has been super consistent recently and, with a good run, will be hitting the line well. Also strong respect for ALLGOOD VINNIE (13), who improved significantly last start but will need to improve again from the barrier.
BACK: THEROUX (10) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: THEROUX (10), BOND GIRL (3), STAR RULER (9), QUICK DECISION (6)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: NO TELLING HEATHER (4) was a feature race winner at two but hasn’t won since. Her last run wasn’t her best, but her previous few starts were promising. She should find a good position from the barrier. NIGHT FLIGHT (2) has produced career-best runs this preparation. He won well two starts ago at this track and should map well from barrier two. MIELICKI (8) will need luck on the fence without a sprint lane, but he is an experienced trotter who can flash home with the right run. IM EDDIE (12) is a nice horse at his best. He has a tricky barrier but has the ability. Also respecting WIND STORM (11) but happy to wait until her manners improve.
SELECTIONS: NO TELLING HEATHER (4), NIGHT FLIGHT (2), MIELICKI (8), IM EDDIE (12)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: COLTRANE (6) has clearly the best sectional times in this field. He is first up for Jess Tubbs and, if he trots throughout, looks hard to beat. PIPALICIOUS (9) has a suitable barrier to follow through into a forward position without doing too much work. She is ultra consistent and just needs to trot safely. MOONLIGHT BILLY (2) has the ideal barrier to get into a good position. He is well bred and has had four starts for four solid runs. He shouldn’t remain a maiden for long. WATCH THE BAY (11) has had one career start where he got it wrong but has trialled okay. The barrier should allow him to settle early without pressure.
BACK: COLTRANE (6) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: COLTRANE (6), PIPALICIOUS (9), MOONLIGHT BILLY (2), WATCH THE BAY (11)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: TUKURUA (3)’s win at Melton three starts back showed she is racing well and has the ability to take this out. She has been getting back from tricky barriers, but from barrier three she should find a more forward position. She has the best sectional times in this field. MORRIS BROWN (5) made a move from last at Charlton and had to cover an extra 29 metres. He hit the line well. Another awkward barrier, but he looks ready to win. HAPPENSTBABEACHBOY (6) is prepared by Ashleigh Herbertson, who has a strong record with her team. He has been looking for luck in recent runs but has finished off well. This looks a suitable race if he can find a position. FOREGONE CONCLUSION (1) has the gate speed and the ace draw and should map well.
BACK: TUKURUA (3) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: TUKURUA (3), MORRIS BROWN (5), HAPPENSTBABEACHBOY (6), FOREGONE CONCLUSION (1)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: HEATSEEKER (2) broke the track record at Charlton last start when leading. Although the record was broken again in the next race, it highlights how well he performed. He has another good barrier and will be hard to run down. WILD BULL (7) did a lot of work last start and got tired late, but the run can be forgiven given the strong time. Prior to that he had been super consistent and can make his own luck. RONNIE THE HAMMER (8) has the best sectional times in this field and is a classy performer for Jess Tubbs. He was a good winner last start at Kilmore and has options as the only runner on the second row. LAMBRO MACH (4) is a horse who has always shown promise and, if he brings his best, is a winning chance.
BACK: HEATSEEKER (2) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: HEATSEEKER (2), WILD BULL (7), RONNIE THE HAMMER (8), LAMBRO MACH (4)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: YANKEE MOJOH (8) is in great form, winning her last two starts and placing in the three runs prior. All those performances were at Mt Gambier and she returns to Ballarat here. She has the best sectional times in the field and, as the only runner on the second line, has options. STARZINHEREYES (2) has brilliant gate speed and an ideal barrier to use to her advantage. She has strong speed and, with a good trip, will be hitting the line well. BAKERS BANDIT (7) hit the line well from last at Geelong and will need luck from the barrier but is a good swooper. BONAVISTA BOY (1) has had only 15 starts since his last win in May 2022. He is lightly raced and can be quirky, but he has a good barrier to return to form.
SELECTIONS: YANKEE MOJOH (8), STARZINHEREYES (2), BAKERS BANDIT (7), BONAVISTA BOY (1)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: MAGELLAN (8) is second up this campaign for Kate Hargreaves, whose team is in great form. She was caught wide and back first up at Bendigo but still hit the line well and should improve. She has options here. REBEL BY THE SEA (2) is a lightly raced, well-bred filly who trialled well at Melton earlier this month and has a good barrier. HAWKESDALE DEED (5) is having her third start and is trained by Tom Rundle, who does a good job with his team. She has trialled okay and should have improved. ALL IN TIGERPIE (7) is a first starter for Ian Stanley. He trialled okay at Menangle late last year and has had fair recent Maryborough trials. He will need luck from the barrier.
BACK: MAGELLAN (8) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: MAGELLAN (8), REBEL BY THE SEA (2), HAWKESDALE DEED (5), ALL IN TIGERPIE (7)
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