Kilmore, Thursday 12 March

Form Analysis by Bronte Nieuwenburg

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Race 1:

OVERVIEW: QUATRO MOTH (10) is a feature race-winning filly from the Emma Stewart stable. She is very classy and, although she’s racing the older horses here for the first time, she still looks too good. KEAYANG RENEGADE (8) has one start for one win last year for the Lee stable. He had a recent trial win where he defeated Running Of The Bulls runner-up Golden Tribe. He looks smart. ANAKIN (4) races well for James Herbertson and draws a barrier ahead of his better rivals. ALTA BAYAMO (2) has good gate speed, has been racing well and should map forward.

BACK: QUATRO MOTH (10) – 3 units (win)

SELECTIONS: QUATRO MOTH (10), KEAYANG RENEGADE (8), ANAKIN (4), ALTA BAYAMO (2)

Race 2:

OVERVIEW: MIDNITE MUSCLE (8) is in career-best form, winning three of his last four. He hit the line strongly to win last start after settling towards the back of the field. He’s a smart horse but will need luck from the barrier. BAR TAB (11) is a smart Volstead-sired mare who has been getting it wrong with her manners. She has clearly the best sectional times in the field but needs to trot throughout. FLING IT RAINBOW (1) has good gate speed and the ace barrier to use to his advantage with a fence-line run. NIGHT FLIGHT (4) returned to the winners’ circle last start when racing away to win by 11.4 metres. He now has the winning confidence.

SELECTIONS: MIDNITE MUSCLE (8), BAR TAB (11), FLING IT RAINBOW (1), NIGHT FLIGHT (4)

Race 3:

OVERVIEW: WITH APLOMB (8) has been absolutely super since joining the Steve Cleave stable. She’s a very smart mare. She has an awkward barrier to overcome but is classy. THE PRIESTESS (9) is another smart mare for the Lee stable. She got it wrong last start, but her performances prior were great. This looks like a fantastic contest between these two top mares. BUMPER SERVICE (2) was a last-start winner at this track when finding the fence. With his gate speed he can work forward again here. Noting he has now moved to the Terry Woodyard stable. NOBLE COUNT (5) won well last start at Bendigo. When he trots well throughout he can be a major threat.

SELECTIONS: WITH APLOMB (8), THE PRIESTESS (9), BUMPER SERVICE (2), NOBLE COUNT (5)

Race 4:

OVERVIEW: ACOOL INVESTMENT (6) numerical form doesn’t look great, but she is racing far better than it appears on paper. She has by far the best sectional times in this field. She raced well last start when third at Melton and the start prior she was checked. WIND STORM (4) won very well on debut at Charlton and marked herself as a classy type. However, that win was recorded in slow time and she will need to improve her times, which is likely with experience and race fitness given how easily she won. THE TROUT COD (1) is a first starter for leading trotting trainer Andy Gath. Her recent trial win was eye-catching. Barrier one can be awkward for an inexperienced trotter as she won’t want to be pressured early, with maintaining her gait the priority. KISS AT MIDNIGHT (9) is first up this year. She ended her campaign last season with a good second at this track and has a suitable barrier to follow through into a good early position.

SELECTIONS: ACOOL INVESTMENT (6), WIND STORM (4), THE TROUT COD (1), KISS AT MIDNIGHT (9)

Race 5:

OVERVIEW: THEROUX (7) was checked last start at Cranbourne but won well the start prior at Melton when swooping from near last. James Herbertson takes the reins. BOND GIRL (5) has been racing better than her form suggests on paper since moving to the Sam Barker stable. She has had a few unlucky runs but her times have been good and she is a strong swooper. MIDNITE DESIRE (4) has been racing well recently but has been meeting runners finishing slightly stronger than him. With luck he will be in the finish. STANDANDELIVER (2) has the gate speed and barrier to use to his advantage and should be able to work forward.

BACK: THEROUX (7) – 3 units (win)

SELECTIONS: THEROUX (7), BOND GIRL (5), MIDNITE DESIRE (4), STANDANDELIVER (2)

Race 6:

OVERVIEW: BREATHE EASY (1) is a flashy chestnut whose recent form has been excellent. He gets a suitable barrier here. Regal Rock, drawn to his outside, has good gate speed, but if Breathe Easy can hold a forward position he will be very hard to beat. AUSSIE JAY MAC (6) has produced two strong runs this year at Shepparton. He can sustain a long run and make his own luck in a field like this. MISTER FONZI (7) has good speed, whether using his gate speed or being saved for a late sprint. If he takes advantage of that speed he has a chance here. THE GOLDEN HOOK (8) is second up for star Young Gun trainer Tasmyn Potter. As the only runner on the second row he has options. If Breathe Easy can hold the front and he slots in behind, he will be flashing late.

BACK: BREATHE EASY (1) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: BREATHE EASY (1), AUSSIE JAY MAC (6), MISTER FONZI (7), THE GOLDEN HOOK (8)

Race 7:

OVERVIEW: TAPPY (7) is a progressive type first up as a three-year-old. He is trained by leading horsewoman Jess Tubbs. He has an awkward barrier to overcome but looks a classy type. FLYING SPARKS (4) has the gate speed to find a suitable forward position. He is versatile and can make his own luck. MIDNIGHT MOJO (2) is a strong swooper in good form. He doesn’t possess exceptional gate speed but should be able to settle with cover in the front half of the field. If he enjoys a good run he will be charging late. KORENGAL VALLEY (8) is lightly raced and still learning what racing is about. Something went amiss last start and he has since been freshened. If at his best he will perform well and has options as the only runner off the back row.

SELECTIONS: TAPPY (7), FLYING SPARKS (4), MIDNIGHT MOJO (2), KORENGAL VALLEY (8)

Race 8:

OVERVIEW: KEAYANG ALABAMA (3) ran strong time when second at Terang last start. He was beaten by a talented first starter but they gapped the rest of the field. This looks a suitable race to break through for his maiden win. FROSTY DROP (2) has the gate speed to likely find the fence. She is a well-bred filly who has had two good trials this year. BUNGY (6) trialled impressively before making his debut earlier this year. He ran a good second on debut but faced a tough run at Bendigo last start. He clearly has ability and should have improved from that outing. LOOKING FROM ABOVE (4) can get it wrong with his manners but his run last start at Boort was improved. He also ran a good third at Cranbourne at big odds. Notably, his last two starts have been his career best and both were on rain-affected tracks.

BACK: KEAYANG ALABAMA (3) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: KEAYANG ALABAMA (3), FROSTY DROP (2), BUNGY (6), LOOKING FROM ABOVE (4)

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