Scottsdale, Friday 9 January
Race 1
Id be surprised if IM QUITE AMERICAN (2) didn’t find the front here and take some running down from there, with both other front row horses not normally great beginners from the stand start in MEMPHIS (1) and CINOCAL JAMANE (3), but both may show some cheek if they did behave. RANIERI (4) did work early last week to try and find the front, and still battled on well for 3rd. GOBSMACKED (6) is clearly the class horse of the field and was very good making ground last start when 2nd. The small fields help him immensely and with a safe beginning, he will loom up at the finish. LOYOLA TRIOS (5) hasn’t had much luck his past few starts and could upset them with the right run in transit.
Selections GOBSMACKED (6), IM QUITE AMERICAN (2), RANIERI (4), LOYOLA TRIOS (5)
Staking Strategy: IM QUITE AMERICAN (2) gets his chance to lead and win. 1 unit win – IM QUITE AMERICAN (2)
Race 2
JADEZ (1) is the lone horse off the front here, so with a safe beginning, she will lead and get her chance to get back in the winners circle round the tight circuit. ITSMENOTU (2) brings the best form lines to the race having competed in much stronger races and with winning form, and will prove hard to beat. ORAVOIR (3) normally begins well from the tapes, and hasn’t had much luck of late, so expecting her to be in the finish with a good run in transit. ANDAMAN BAY (8) will have a task ahead of him off the 20m but has been racing well in stronger races, whilst the rest of the field would need to improve off their current form to be finishing on the podium.
Selections ITSMENOTU (2), JADEZ (1), ORAVOIR (3), ANDAMAN BAY (8)
Staking Strategy: Going with JADEZ (1) at the slightly better odds, and being the lone front row horse. 2 unit win – JADEZ (1)
Race 3
Nearly every horse in this field could win with the right run here, but as usual I’m expecting these races to be on speed dominated. SETTEBELLO (4) and SAPPHIRE GAMBLER (5) both flew the stand, and won or placed accordingly at St Marys. They look the fastest of the front row beginners, however you cant knock winning form in OBLER (1) going for 3 straight wins, and won off 20m last start. COLBY SANZ (8) was far too tough in a similar field last start and expect him to race well at his local track, and will no doubt have good local support in the market. CAN FEEL THE FURY (2) and DENNY (3) were both heat winners of the North West Plate at Burnie and will be looking to sit on speed, whilst POWER UP (7) probably brings the strongest form to the race, but will need a better beginning than his only attempt so far from the stand.
Selections SAPPHIRE GAMBLER (5), COLBY SANZ (8), DENNY (3), POWER UP (7)
Staking Strategy: Hardest race of meet which the market reflects, small interest bets SETTEBELLO (4) and SAPPHIRE GAMBLER (5) who are the fastest beginners and may get to the pegs first. 1 unit win – SETTEBELLO (4) & SAPPHIRE GAMBLER (5)
Race 4
Tammy Langley looks to have a strong hand with her 3 runners all drawing well off the front row. However, they all galloped away from the stand start in their previous start which makes it very hard to assess who may lead. GOODTIME OSCAR (2) has the best form of those, and can be driven tough on speed if required, with the stables main driver Dylan Ford again choosing to drive him. DONE WELL (3) has been racing better than her figure form shows, so she can be in the finish if she sits closer on speed. KENYA (10) has been racing well in slightly higher grades, but would require a silly tempo up front to get into the finish. ALBERIO (6) and NO NUKES SKIPPER (7) are both good beginners and may be able to sit on speed from their inside 2nd row draws and hope luck comes there way. SINISTER (4) and JILLIBY JAY SEA (1) look the other possible winning chances if they began well.
Selections GOODTIME OSCAR (2), DONE WELL (3), ALBERIO (6), NO NUKES SKIPPER (7)
Staking Strategy: ALBERIO (6) should fly away from the back row still, and camp close to the speed, looks a good place bet at the odds especially. 0.5 unit win & 1.5 unit place – ALBERIO (6)
Race 5
ONLINE MODEL (4) looks the best of the front row horses, and normally begins well, and will no doubt take running down if she was able to find the front. TWILIGHT BEACH (7) began brilliantly off the 20m last week to camp just behind the leaders and win by 10m convincedly. JEREMY WELLS (9) has been racing well without winning, whilst SMOOTH DEAL (10) has winning form but will need luck to go his way early to sit somewhat near the front, but does possess brilliant standing start manners. Would be surprised if the winner didn’t come from those 4 runners, with no much form to go off for the other runners.
Selections ONLINE MODEL (4), TWILIGHT BEACH (7), JEREMY WELLS (9), SMOOTH DEAL (10)
Staking Strategy: Think you can back both ONLINE MODEL (4) who can ping to the front, whilst TWILIGHT BEACH (7) should begin well and looks the main danger, for a small profit. 2 unit win – ONLINE MODEL (4) & TWILIGHT BEACH (5)
Race 6
A very strong Scottsdale Cup with many high rating horses drawing well off the front mark, with the race being handicapped off lifetime wins. MAEBEE (2) has been racing very well in open class features of late without winning, but this might be his chance to break through if he pinged to the top. HORATIUS SPECULO (5) begin safely at the trials from the stand, and may be suited to starting out wide on the track. He couldn’t have done much more the past few months going through his grades, but this is his biggest test, especially around the tight Scottsdale circuit. IRON CLAD (1) form has tapered off slightly since his good Golden Apple heat win, but gets his chance from the pole draw with a safe beginning, and I’m expecting he’ll be there in the finish at each way odds. ZARA TINDALL (3) was very good off 40m last week, and will be in the finish if she handles the quick back up over another long trip, whilst MY WAY (6) might get a suck run on the pegs and could be dangerous if gaps appear. NEON (8) had a perfect run in transit to take out the St Marys Cup last week, but would need a similar run to win again, as I think it’s a much harder field.
Selections IRON CLAD (1), MAEBEE (2), HORATIUS SPECULO (5), MY WAY (6)
Staking Strategy: A cracking cup over the 2692m distance, there’s no $21 about for IRON CLAD (1) anymore, but he is still worth a bet, whilst MY WAY (6) getting a soft pegs run is also worth a dabble. 2 unit win – IRON CLAD (1) & 1 unit win – MY WAY (6)
Race 7
A very tough race to round out the card, where POST KEG (4) has the most upside, and ran a nice 2nd at St Marys sitting outside the leader. SHEZALLLOLLIES (3) was the equal favourite in the same race, but fell on the first corner and took no part in the race. She has since trialled okay and looks the main danger. STANTON BREAK (2) makes his debut from the tapes, and consistently runs placings in these types of races and this looks no different. MIKI SANZ (7) was slowly away at St Marys but did make up a lot of ground to only be beaten 8m, a safer beginning and a good run in transit would see him in the finish here at his best. Cant see any others as winning chances in the field, even though BETTERTHANPRETTY (1) is off the front by herself, but would require major improvement on recent efforts, whilst HARRYS DEAL (9) would need a few favoured runners to misbehave to be in finish off the 20m.
Selections POST KEG (4), SHEZALLLOLLIES (3), MIKI SANZ (7), STANTON BREAK (2)
Staking Strategy: Not sure how or why the (1) opened $1.5, as I had it $41, even with Hillier on and the lone front row horse. Market has corrected itself slightly since, and think SHEZALLLOLLIES (3) can even lead from 10m, whilst POST KEG (4) can settle on speed and is the best horse in the race. 2 unit win – SHEZALLLOLLIES (3) & POST KEG (4).
