Ballarat, Saturday 18 January

Form Analysis by Craig Rail

Race 1:

OVERVIEW: TRIPLE EIGHT (11) won eight races of similar standard last season and scored comfortably in a slick mile rate of 1.52.7 at Geelong two starts ago. He competed in the Bendigo Cup last outing and is likely to find this assignment to be more suitable. EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (3) went very hard in the early stages and ended up being behind the leader when a creditable fourth in the Hamilton Cup last week. He endured a tough run when second at Cranbourne prior and is likely to give a bold showing from his good draw. GHOST OF TIME (12) performs best when he is able to lead and has been in terrific form since resuming. He settled down in a rearward position and finished off solidly for sixth (6m) in the Hamilton Cup last week and he is the emergency for the Ballarat Cup. LITTLE LOUIE (9) is resuming since a fifth in the Super Series Final back in September. He finished second behind stable mate Dee Roe (won Hamilton Cup since) at a recent Maryborough trial effort so he is not without a chance.

EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 1,2,7

SELECTIONS: TRIPLE EIGHT (11), EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (3), GHOST OF TIME (12), LITTLE LOUIE (9)

RATINGS: 11/ 3/ 9,12/ 1,2/ 5

SUGGESTED BET: TRIPLE EIGHT (11) to win

Race 2:

OVERVIEW: BALBOA ROCK (7) was resuming since being unplaced in the Qbred Triad Final in August when he pushed forward to find the lead and finished second ($1-10 fav) at Geelong. He performed a little below expectations first up but he should be fitter from that run and has the class to make his presence felt. NAKULA (9) is racing in top form and should be competitive again. She began quickly to lead and held off her rivals to win in a mile rate of 1.54.8 at Melton last outing. REMI LOU (5) is a strong mare that should give a forward showing. She found the front and scored at Kilmore then endured a tough run and fought on strongly for third at Melton last week. RUDY GEE (6) led throughout at a Melton victory on December 31 then worked hard to find the lead and battled on well for fourth last week. He is widely drawn but looms as one of the leading chances. MAJOR MANBAR (1) will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and has claims along with OOH AH LISTAH (4) and KEAYANG WASABI (10).

EARLY SPEED: 5 (possible leader), 1,3,7

SELECTIONS: BALBOA ROCK (7), NAKULA (9), REMI LOU (5), RUDY GEE (6)

RATINGS: 7/ 5,6,9/ 4/ 1/ 10,11

SUGGESTED BET: BALBOA ROCK (7) to win

Race 3:

OVERVIEW: ALDEBARAN BROOKE (9) progressed forward to find the lead from a wide draw and proved to be too strong in a mile rate of 1.58.5 when she defeated Kyvalleyhoneybunny (won since) at Melton on December 31. She was runner up behind the top mare She’s Ruby Roo prior and looms as a strong winning chance again. PICKET WIRE (5) appeared to have every chance when fifth behind Aldebaran Miley last week but this is a much easier assignment and her overall form is sound so she warrants consideration. USED TO BE A MAID (6) has performed very well at her two starts back from a long spell and is worth thought despite rising steeply in class for this assignment. QUAKE PROOF (2) is capable of sprinting to the line quickly with the right trail forward and has claims. LEANNE LEEANN (1) and ALDEBARAN BOYD (8) are both capable of showing up without surprising.

EARLY SPEED: 5 (possible leader), 3

SELECTIONS: ALDEBARAN BROOKE (9), PICKET WIRE (5), USED TO BE A MAID (6), QUAKE PROOF (2)

RATINGS:9/ 5/ 2,6,8/ 1

SUGGESTED BET: ALDEBARAN BROOKE (9) to win

Race 4:

OVERVIEW: MOST TRIUMPHANT (9) commenced from the inside of the second row, moved away from the markers and circled around the field to park without cover when a brave second behind MIKI MAHONEY (2) at Kilmore last outing. She has been racing extremely well and deserves to break through for a win. EMILY VINCENT (7) is poorly drawn but is racing in career best form so she must be included amongst the leading chances. She was driven aggressively to find the lead and posted a sizzling mile rate of 1.52.2 when she scored over EL BOSTON (4) last outing. HARRYHOO (8) failed to run on when seventh behind Roarforroscoe last outing but this is a significant drop back in class and he is perfectly drawn behind a fast beginner so he is worth another chance. SNOW HUNTER (1) began swiftly but couldn’t get across to the markers in the early stages and was shuffled back in the field mid-race when second behind The Narcissist at Hamilton. She is ideally drawn over the sprint distance and should go well again.

EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 3,4,6,7

SELECTIONS: MOST TRIUMPHANT (9), EMILY VINCENT (7), HARRYHOO (8), SNOW HUNTER (1)

RATINGS: 7,9/ 1,8/ 2,3/ 4/ FIELD

SUGGESTED BET: MOST TRIUMPHANT (9) each way

Race 5:

OVERVIEW: SOHO THE REAL DEAL (2) was resuming since being unplaced in the Super Series Final when he attempted to lead throughout and finished a very close third in the Graham Head Memorial at Shepparton. He should strip fitter from that run and is capable of bouncing back into winning form. FAIRPLAY (7) trailed the leader and used the sprint lane when a close second in the same race last week. He appeared to have every chance on Saturday night and he is not as well drawn for this assignment but his overall form is very strong. FORTY LOVE (8) is resuming since winning the Super Series Silver event at Bendigo in September but he will be fitter after a recent Horsham trial second. He is a tough type and boasts a good record so he cannot be underestimated. GALAXY LASS (1) is a place chance from the pole position and THINKFAST RUNFAST (6) is also capable of running into a place if he gains the right luck in running.

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1,4,6,7

SELECTIONS: SOHO THE REAL DEAL (2), FAIRPLAY (7), FORTY LOVE (8), GALAXY LASS (1)

RATINGS: 2,7/ 8/ 1,6

SUGGESTED BET: SOHO THE REAL DEAL (2) to win

Race 6:

OVERVIEW: KANENA PROVLIMA (5) was second past the post but was promoted to first in the Shepparton Cup last week after a third behind the champion pacer Swayzee at Bathurst. He possesses early speed and this is a very similar race to the Shepparton Cup so he should prove hard to beat again. BULLETPROOF BOY (3) continues to race in great form and was able to snare victory on the line when he defeated Tact McLeod in the Bendigo Cup. He is very versatile and should run his usual honest race. ULTIMATE VINNIE (2) is a tough type and did well when a handy finishing third in the Bendigo Cup last outing. He won the South Australian Cup in October and is drawn to be prominent throughout. MACH DAN (7) is returning from the Inter Dominion series, where he finished unplaced in all of the three heats. He performs best when he is able to lead so the barrier draw is a disadvantage but he is one of the class runners of the field. PERFECT CLASS (8) is very awkwardly drawn on the inside of the second line but he is too good to dismiss.

EARLY SPEED: 5 (possible leader), 2,3,7

SELECTIONS: KANENA PROVLIMA (5), BULLETPROOF BOY (3), ULTIMATE VINNIE (2), MACH DAN (7)

RATINGS: 5/ 2,3,7/ 8/ 1,4/ 10,12/ FIELD

SUGGESTED BET: KANENA PROVLIMA (5) each way

Race 7:

OVERVIEW: ARCEE PHOENIX (3) sustained a long run and produced an outstanding performance to win the Maori Mile at Bendigo on January 04. His two runs since returning from New Zealand have been sound and he is clearly the class runner of the field so he will take beating. ALDEBARAN VERA (6) commenced from the handicap of 40m, worked into a nice trail and battled on strongly for second behind the Inter Dominion runner up Keayang Chucky in the Hamilton Cup. She finished determinedly for fourth in the Maori Mile prior so she must be respected. AROHA KOE (9) led throughout and defeated ARCEE PHOENIX (3) at Cranbourne then followed with a third in the Maori Mile. He faces a negative swing in the barrier draw but is a definite place possibility. EBONYS AVENGER (1) is perfectly drawn to suit her racing pattern and AARDIEBYTHEHILL (2) was competitive at a high level in New Zealand.

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely early leader), 2,5

SELECTIONS: ARCEE PHOENIX (3), ALDEBARAN VERA (6), AROHA KOE (9), EBONYS AVENGER (1)

RATINGS: 3/ 6/ 9/ 1,2/ 7,9/ 4,5

SUGGESTED BET: ARCEE PHOENIX (3) to win

Race 8:

OVERVIEW: MINOS (8) is awkwardly drawn behind a moderate beginner in NORMS LADY (1) but he is a very smart former New South Wales trained pacer, that appears to be beautifully graded in this event. He was resuming since a third in the Queensland Derby when third behind Tango Tara in a brilliant mile rate of 1.51.5 on January 02. RAGING WHITEBAIT (6) has performed extremely well since coming from New Zealand having remained undefeated in three starts. He progressed forward to find the lead and recorded a sizzling final quarter of 26.7 seconds when he won at Bendigo last outing. ROCKANDANCE (3) is a tough type, which finished third in the Gordon Rothacker Memorial behind Stormryder at his latest attempt and is drawn to be prominent throughout. NORMS LADY (1) has had a few chances since her latest victory but she ran a sharper race for second at Bendigo last outing and should receive every chance from her perfect draw.

EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 5,6

SELECTIONS: MINOS (8), RAGING WHITEBAIT (6), ROCKANDANCE (3), NORMS LADY (1)

RATINGS: 6,8/ 3/ 1,7/ 9

SUGGESTED BET: MINOS (8) to win