Melton, Friday 17 January
Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: SEVE (1) is a fast beginner and is perfectly drawn to suit his racing pattern. He led and finished a close second behind Diamond Eclipse (won again since) at Melton then followed with a third behind Operative Line in a very strong race. He should be prominent throughout under these conditions. HUGO MAGUIRE (2) is a versatile pacer, which has been nearing a win for some time. He ran home well for second behind Tallulah Lee in a mile of 1.55.5 at Cranbourne last outing. MONA MIA (4) appreciated a drop back in class when she sustained a strong run to win in a slick mile rate of 1.52.9 at Melton last outing. She should have gained a lot of confidence from that runaway success and is worth thought again. FINAL COLLECT (8) hasn’t been at his best form since resuming but his latest fifth was encouraging and he has the perfect trailing draw behind SEVE (1) so he must be included amongst the leading hopes.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 2
SELECTIONS: SEVE (1) HUGO MAGUIRE (2), MONA MIA (4), FINAL COLLECT (8)
RATINGS: 1/ 2,4/ 8/ 7,9,10
SUGGESTED BET: SEVE (1) each way
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: SHONNY LOU (3) had every chance after trailing the leader at his Australian debut but he went into that race without a trial and the mile rate was a very fast 1.53.7 so he should run a sharper race under these conditions. SPORTS WRACK (5) showed a return to form when he attempted to lead throughout in a slick mile rate of 1.54.7 and finished a close second behind Lenard Ess. He is likely to go forward at the start again and should go well. AUCKLAND RED (2) finished fourth in the Echuca Cup then contested a heat of the Maryborough Cup so he is likely to find this assignment to be more suitable. He won at Geelong four starts ago and is drawn to receive every chance. IMPERIAL NIGHT (6) is stepping up in class after winning a Maiden last week but he continues to improve with the benefit of racing and is capable of taking the next step forward.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 3,5
SELECTIONS: SHONNY LOU (3), SPORTS WRACK (5), AUCKLAND RED (2), IMPERIAL NIGHT (6)
RATINGS: 3,5/ 2/ 6/ 4,8,10
SUGGESTED BET: SHONNY LOU (3) each way
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: TUNBRIDGE (3) settled midfield and attempted to sustain a long run when a game second behind Jakarta in a fast mile rate of 1.58.8 at Melton last week. He appears to be suited against this class and should prove hard to beat. WATTS UP RAPTOR (7) led throughout and scored by a large margin at his debut then finished nicely via the sprint lane at his latest third. His two performances to date have been sound and he looms as one of the leading chances again. COCONUT MICKEY (5) has been placed at his past five attempts and deserves to break through for a win. He left a trailing position to move up without cover mid-race when a game second at Kilmore last outing. HARD ROCK ANGEL (10) is stepping up in grade from the Maiden class but won well enough last time to warrant respect.
EARLY SPEED: 7 (possible leader), 5
SELECTIONS: TUNBRIDGE (3), WATTS UP RAPTOR (7), COCONUT MICKEY (5), HARD ROCK ANGEL (10)
RATINGS: 3,7/ 5/ 10/ 11/ 2
SUGGESTED BET: TUNBRIDGE (3) to win
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: OLIVIA ROSE (7) missed out last outing but she did plenty of work and the mile rate was very quick at 1.53.7. She was a runaway winner at Geelong three starts ago then followed with a strong second at Terang so she is worth another chance. TINSEL TIARA (2) led out then took cover and finished second under similar conditions last week. She performed very well at the trials prior to her past two placed efforts and she looms as one of the leading chances. ILLAWONG PHOENIX (1) commenced from the pole position and settled three back on the markers when placed last week. This race is no harder and she is drawn to receive a very similar trail so she must be respected. MIDNIGHT MOJO (6), BLACK TUXEDO (10) and ODIN (11), which won a trial at Terang last week, all have claims in an open race.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 3
SELECTIONS: OLIVIA ROSE (7), TINSEL TIARA (2), ILLAWONG PHOENIX (1), ODIN (11)
RATINGS: 7/ 2/ 1,11/ 6,10/ 4
SUGGESTED BET: OLIVIA ROSE (7) each way
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: ALFREDJOHNCRUSADER (1) is a former New South Wales pacer, which was placed in both a heat and the Final of the Homegrown Classic at his first two Victorian attempts. He is ideally drawn and this is a drop back in class so he is clearly the horse to beat. WRITTENINTHESKY (8) has the perfect trailing draw behind ALFREDJOHNCRUSADER (1) and was runner up via the sprint lane at Geelong three starts ago so she must be considered as one of the leading chances. FULLOFFIGHT (9) ran a big race after galloping early at Melton two starts ago then worked hard on the outside of the leader and was narrowly beaten at Bendigo. He is an experienced maiden but is getting closer to a win. TRIROCKIN (4) and MY ATLANTIS (5) are both racing well enough to be worth thought in multiple combinations.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 4
SELECTIONS: ALFREDJOHNCRUSADER (1), WRITTENINTHESKY (8), FULLOFFIGHT (9), MY ATLANTIS (5)
RATINGS: 1/ 8,9/ 4,5/ 2,6
SUGGESTED BET: ALFREDJOHNCRUSADER (1) to win
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: ATA RANGI (9) performed extremely well in the Homegrown Classic series having finished second in both the heat and the Final behind Our Rocker, the latest being beaten by a metre in a sizzling mile rate of 1.53.0. This is a drop back in class and he should prove hard to beat. CAPITALISM (5) led throughout to score in a mile rate of 1.56.7 at Melton at his second attempt. He is stepping up in class for this assignment but he should continue to get better with the benefit of race experience. ABERDENE (3) went very quickly in the early stages to hold the inside advantage and did a good job to kick on and finish third at Kilmore last outing. She rates as a value chance from her good draw. CINQUANTA (2) produced a career best performance to win at Melton last outing and has claims along with SASSYOLA (4).
EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 1,2,5,6
SELECTIONS: ATA RANGI (9), CAPITALISM (5), ABERDENE (3), CINQUANTA (2)
RATINGS: 9/ 5/ 2,3,4/ 1,6
SUGGESTED BET: ATA RANGI (9) to win
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: TOUGH SHAZ (5) won a heat of the Homegrown Classic then followed with a strong second in the Final, where she raced without cover in a sizzling mile rate of 1.52.2. She has been placed in five of her six starts to date and looks set to add to her consistent record in this event. ROCCO AMERICANO (6) gets into this race nicely with the aid of a concession claim and battled on well for third behind Kia Ora Beauty at Shepparton last week after he was forced to race without cover throughout. He possesses early speed and should be competitive again. POPCORNFRIDAY (1) worked home nicely for fourth behind He’s Olly at Melton last week and is likely to try and land the position behind TOUGH SHAZ (5) so he is worth a ticket each way. KWICK SAND (3) is resuming since September but he performed very nicely at a Terang second last week and he performs best over the sprint distance.
EARLY SPEED: 5 (likely leader), 1,3,6
SELECTIONS: TOUGH SHAZ (5), ROCCO AMERICANO (6), POPCORNFRIDAY (1), KWICK SAND (3)
RATINGS: 5/ 1,6/ 3/ 4,7,8/ 2
SUGGESTED BET: TOUGH SHAZ (5) to win
