Shepparton, Tuesday 7 January
Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: OUR MYSTERY BET (11) was held up badly behind tiring horses leading up to the home turn and finished off strongly when an eye-catching fourth last outing. He strikes a suitable assignment and should take holding out in the run to the finish. AMBER ALERT (4) led when second behind Tophut Johny (won again since) then followed with a third at Albury, where she again set the speed. She is likely to be looking for the lead again and is nearing a win against this class. OLLY ODD POTTS (10) is usually competitive against this class and can improve on his numerical form. STELLAR QUEEN (2) possesses early speed and is a possible improver. SILVER DOMINO (7), JOEYS HANGOVER (8) and VERY TEMPTING (9) are all worth thought in multiple combinations.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 2,6
SELECTIONS: OUR MYSTERY BET (11), AMBER ALERT (4), OLLY ODD POTTS (10), STELLAR QUEEN (2)
RATINGS: 4,11/ 10/ 2/ 7,8,9/ FIELD
SUGGESTED BET: OUR MYSTERY BET (11) to win
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: ROCKNLENA (4) finished off well for second behind the smart pacer Bearhunta at her debut then followed with a second at Cobram, where she worked hard to find the lead. She is showing ability and appears to be ready to break through for a win. MID SUMMA (10) performed nicely at the trials prior to a fifth at her debut. She is a nicely bred filly and has a good turn of speed so she is worth following. SON OF A BROAD (7) trailed the leader and battled on fairly well for third at Shepparton last outing. He faces a negative swing in the barrier draw but is capable of filling a place again. FIELD OF POPPIES (2) has been racing consistently against similar opposition and is drawn to go well again. She trailed the leader when a close third behind Midnight Music at Maryborough two starts ago.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 1,5
SELECTIONS: ROCKNLENA (4), MID SUMMA (10), SON OF A BROAD (7), FIELD OF POPPIES (2)
RATINGS: 4/ 10/ 2,7/ 5
SUGGESTED BET: ROCKNLENA (4) to win
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: WAZOWSKI (4) competed in the Home Grown Classic series at her first two Victorian attempts and will prove very hard to beat. She led in a heat of that series and finished second in a mile rate of 1.53.4 then followed with a fourth in the Final. NOMORELYING (8) settled in the second half of the field and finished off solidly for third behind Scheming last week. He has been placed in three of his past four starts and should take beating against this line up. ROAM (5) was resuming since October when she finished off well from a rearward position and ran into fifth behind Scheming at Shepparton last week. She should strip fitter from that performance and is a definite place possibility. MAJORS CREEK (1) commenced from the inside of the second line and was shuffled back on the markers when an unlucky fifth at Shepparton last outing. She moves to the front line now so she is worth thought in multiple combinations.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 1,2
SELECTIONS: WAZOWSKI (4), NOMORELYING (8), ROAM (5), MAJORS CREEK (1)
RATINGS: 4/ 5,8/ 1/ 2/ 3
SUGGESTED BET: WAZOWSKI (4) to win
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: ICANMOTOR (5) is racing consistently and deserves to break through for a win. He was held up for a run at a vital stage and finished off well for third behind Cinquanta last outing. LUVERBOY (8) should receive an economical run being the lone runner drawn on the second line. He won under similar conditions at Shepparton on November 19 and is worth thought again. NOBLE JULIA (1) and MYNAMEISRUBY (4) are both racing well enough to figure in the finish. LORIMERMAJOR (7) began quickly to trail the leader and chased hard when second at Echuca last week. He is widely drawn but is not without a chance.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (possible leader), 1,2
SELECTIONS: ICANMOTOR (5), LUVERBOY (8), MYNAMEISRUBY (4), NOBLE JULIA (1)
RATINGS: 5/ 8/ 1,4/ 7
SUGGESTED BET: ICANMOTOR (5) to win
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: FRUGAL FARE (4) was resuming since July when he gained a nice trail and tried hard in a slick final half of 56.7 seconds at his latest second behind Art Ideal. He should strip fitter from that performance and this is a similar line up so he is capable of going one better. MAJOR BERT (7) was heavily supported but was headed off from the pole position and ended up being in the running lane when a close second at Melton on New Years Eve. He kept chasing to the line last outing so he must be considered as a winning chance here. ALABAMA ICE (3) performed nicely at the trials prior to his first two efforts since July. He should be reaching his peak form and is not without a chance. SHE HAUNTS EM (2) is capable of sprinting to the line quickly with the right trail forward and has claims despite being first up since August.
EARLY SPEED: 6 (possible leader), 2,7
SELECTIONS: FRUGAL FARE (4), MAJOR BERT (7), ALABAMA ICE (3), SHE HAUNTS EM (2)
RATINGS: 4,7/ 3/ 2/ 1
SUGGESTED BET: FRUGAL FARE (4) to win
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: FREMARKSTILLY (5) has returned from a break in fantastic form with three straight victories and will prove hard to beat. He progressed forward to find the lead and recorded a slick mile rate of 1.56.6 at her latest runaway success. YANKEE LOVER (6) finished off solidly via the sprint lane when second in the Echuca Cup last outing. He gets into this race nicely with the aid of a concession claim and must be respected. YOU NO ILL BE LATE (4) finished fifth behind FREMARKSTILLY (5) at his latest attempt but his overall form has been sound and he is capable of running into a place. MONTANA MUSCLE (1) is maintaining a consistent form line and is capable of filling a place again.
EARLY SPEED: 5 (likely leader), 2,4
SELECTIONS: FREMARKSTILLY (5), YANKEE LOVER (6), YOU NO ILL BE LATE (4), MONTANA MUSCLE (1)
RATINGS: 5/ 6/ 4/ 1,2/ 3/ 7
SUGGESTED BET: FREMARKSTILLY (5) to win
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: SETTLE THE BILL (4) has won easily at her two starts for new trainer Damian Wilson and this race is no harder so she is clearly the horse to beat again. LIZZIES SON (7) is racing below his best form but this is his easiest assignment for some time so he is capable of improving on his numerical form. His close up second behind Bennie And The Jets at Shepparton on October 15 is a good form pointer for this event. ABBIE (2) struck trouble and lost her chance when ninth at Echuca last outing. She finished in the top four in six of her previous seven starts and should run her usual honest race. HURRICANE JANE (6) was placed against similar opposition at Gunbower three starts ago and is not without a chance.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 7
SELECTIONS: SETTLE THE BILL (4), LIZZIES SON (7), ABBIE (2), HURRICANE JANE (6)
RATINGS: 4/ 7/ 2,6/ 1/ 3,5
SUGGESTED BET: SETTLE THE BILL (4) to win
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: RONNIE THE HAMMER (1) led throughout in a heat of the Home Grown Classic then followed with a second behind Captain Perfect in a sizzling mile rate of 1.52.2 in the Final. This is a drop back in class so he is clearly the horse to beat. LEAVEMEOUT (3) settled three back on the markers and held his own in the straight when sixth behind Rudy Gee in a Metropolitan race last outing. He is a speedy type and is worth a ticket each way. ARNIES ARMY (4) ran a sharper race at his second run back from a spell with a third at Mildura last week. He should be reaching his peak form so he is a place chance again. BETA THAN LOVE (6) performed below expectations when seventh at Mildura last outing but his form prior was sound so he is not without a chance.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 3,4
SELECTIONS: RONNIE THE HAMMER (1), LEAVEMEOUT (3), ARNIES ARMY (4), BETA THAN LOVE (6)
RATINGS: 1/ 3,4/ 6/ 5/ 2
SUGGESTED BET: RONNIE THE HAMMER (1) to win
