Swan Hill, Sunday 5 January
Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: ALFNALMA (5) will appreciate a significant drop back in class for this assignment and will prove hard to beat. She had no luck after being caught wide at Melton last outing and she possesses a powerful finishing burst. COMMUNITY ART (4) is resuming since February but he joins trainer Alex Ashwood and was very impressive at a Bendigo trial victory on Monday night so he must be respected. OUR MASTER PLAY (2) seems to prefer racing on the 1000m circuit at Swan Hill compared to Mildura and he is perfectly drawn to run a big race. He missed out narrowly after setting the speed at Mildura last outing. SPRING DELIGHT (1) is likely to utilize his gate speed to gain a prominent position in the early stages. He was a big winner at Mildura on November 29 so he is not without a chance. LOVE WATCH (10) was heavily supported at his first start for trainer Alex Ashwood but made an early error and lost his winning chance. He has ability and is worth another chance.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 2,3
SELECTIONS: ALFNALMA (5), COMMUNITY ART (4), OUR MASTER PLAY (2), SPRING DELIGHT (1)
RATINGS: 5/ 4/ 1,2/ 10/ 8,9/ 3,6,7
SUGGESTED BET: ALFNALMA (5) to win
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: DOOO DON’T THINK (3) led throughout to win at Mildura last outing and is drawn to find the lead again in a race of similar standard so he will take catching. HANOVER JACK (1) settled on the markers and finished off best to win at Maryborough two starts ago. He is perfectly drawn to suit his racing pattern and is worth a ticket each way. SUNSHINE WARRIOR (10) trailed the leader and got home best to win at Mildura last outing. He is racing consistently and this race is no harder so he is worth thought again. CHEERS POVERTY (6) delivered a strong performance to win at Mildura last outing and has claims along with ORAMA (7) and DEEWHY (9).
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 6
SELECTIONS: DOOO DON’T THINK (3), HANOVER JACK (1), SUNSHINE WARRIOR (10), CHEERS POVERTY (6)
RATINGS: 3/ 1,10/ 6/ 7,9
SUGGESTED BET: DOOO DON’T THINK (3) to win
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: BIG SLEDGE HAMMER (3) struck trouble on the home turn and lost his chance last outing. He was an impressive winner at Shepparton three starts ago and has the early speed to be prominent throughout. BRUISED EGO (5) was left stranded without cover and battled on gamely for a close second behind Louieville at Mildura last outing. He has performed nicely at his two starts back from a break and should give another forward showing. MARTY THE MARTIAN (6) is resuming since October but he is a speedy pacer that is usually competitive at this level so he is worth an investment. IVANA BYTHESEASIDE (1) is a fast beginner and races best over the sprint distance. CEE CEE IN AMERICA (7) is awkwardly drawn but is racing well enough to figure in the finish.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 3
SELECTIONS: BIG SLEDGE HAMMER (3), BRUISED EGO (5), MARTY THE MARTIAN (6), IVANA BYTHESEASIDE (1)
RATINGS:3/ 5,6/ 1/ 7/ 2/ 4
SUGGESTED BET: BIG SLEDGE HAMMER (3) to win
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: PRIORITISE (8) is racing in great form having won at his past three starts. He led throughout and recorded slick time at Mildura last week and he should prove hard to beat again. GO AWAY AGAIN (4) has a tendency to mix his form but he is a good chance of leading throughout if he puts his best foot forward. He led and dashed away to score by a large margin in a mile rate of 1.57.5 at Mildura three starts ago. FENG SHUI STAR (6) ran a game race after enduring a wide trip from a similar tough draw at his latest second behind PRIORITISE (8). He is racing in career best form and is worth thought again. AMERICAN BOXER (1) and AMYS BABY ANGEL (3) are both worth thought in multiple combinations.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 1,2,5
SELECTIONS: PRIORITISE (8), GO AWAY AGAIN (4), FENG SHUI STAR (6), AMYS BABY ANGEL (3)
RATINGS: 8/ 4/ 6/ 1,3/ 2,5,7
SUGGESTED BET: PRIORITISE (8) to win
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: IM ALL BUSINESS (2) is a first starter for trainer Alex Ashwood, which was very impressive at a recent Shepparton trial victory and should prove hard to beat. SUPER SUSPECT (1) gained a nice trail and worked home well for second at Mildura last outing. She is ideally drawn and looms as one of the leading chances again. HELLOVATIME (4) ran a big race after parking without cover when second at Charlton two starts ago then endured a similar tough trip at Maryborough last outing. He may end up being stranded without cover again but he is racing well enough to break through for a win. HAPPENSTBABEACHBOY (5) performed nicely at the trials prior to finishing eighth ($2-50 fav) at his debut. He couldn’t work into the race first up but he is better than that run suggests so he is worth another chance.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1,4
SELECTIONS: IM ALL BUSINESS (2), SUPER SUSPECT (1), HELLOVATIME (4), HAPPENSTBABEACHBOY (5)
RATINGS: 2/ 1,4/ 5
SUGGESTED BET: IM ALL BUSINESS (2) to win
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: FLAMING LUCKY (4) is capable of sprinting to the line quickly with the right trail forward and appears to be suited to competing in a small field of six runners. He was placed behind Harley Blue in a slick mile rate of 1.56.3 at Charlton at his latest appearance. CELESTIAL DAYBREAK (6) is a fast beginner and led throughout to win against similar grade at Charlton on December 02. He has been placed in three of his past four starts and looms as one of the leading chances again. STONEBRIDGE STAR (5) worked home well for third at Mildura two starts ago and is a minor place chance again. WROCKING WROXTON (2) and IMPETUOSO (3) are both fast beginners and are worth thought in multiple combinations.
EARLY SPEED: 6 (likely leader), 2,3
SELECTIONS: FLAMING LUCKY (4), CELESTIAL DAYBREAK (6), STONEBRIDGE STAR (5), IMPETUOSO (3)
RATINGS: 4,6/ 5/ 2,3/ 1
SUGGESTED BET: FLAMING LUCKY (4) to win
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: JUST ABIT DUSTY (3) is a very risky beginner from the standing start but he has been racing in good form and will take beating if he steps away cleanly. He won at Ballarat two starts ago and has joined trainer Kerryn Manning since his latest fourth at Horsham. CREATABLE (5) was resuming since October when he battled on fairly well for fourth behind Alleyes at Globe Derby. He should strip fitter from the run and he has been competitive in stronger races previously so he is worth an investment. ROBBINMEMATES (6) faces a tough handicap of 40m but this is his easiest assignment for some time and the small field of six runners will be an advantage. SHIELD MAIDEN (1) is the only horse commencing from the front line and is a swift beginner so she should receive every chance.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader)
SELECTIONS: JUST ABIT DUSTY (3), CREATABLE (5), ROBBINMEMATES (6), SHIELD MAIDEN (1)
RATINGS: 3/ 5/ 6/ 1/ 2,4
SUGGESTED BET: JUST ABIT DUSTY (3) each way
