Carrick, Sunday 29 December

Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt

 

Carrick 29th December

We head to Carrick for a good nine event card and there is a few that im keen on.

The best of those comes by the way of Glenledi Elvis in race seven.

Danger Play looks a good play in race three along with Cheetah Lodge in race four.

Miss Dutton looks a good gamble in race six from her draw and Octagonise should send us home on a winning note in the last.

RACE 1: 12:56pm Jeremy Rockliff Pace 1670m

The first of the afternoon is for the 2yos and its their last chance to get a win before seasons end. It will be a shame if BOLT OF COBARGO (11) can’t breakthrough as his been consistent all year so hoping for some luck from draw and looks for him to get over the top late. UNMATCHED (8) there are not much between these two and he draws the better so that could be a deciding factor late. HORATIUS SPECULO (10) is on debut and was impressive at the trials so will pay to keep very safe. FANCY ANOTHER (1), PHLOW JO (3), OUR WILLOW (6) and AUDACIOUS KID (7) are a quartet to include the wider exotic placings.

TOP PICK: Unmatched (8) gets every chance.

DANGERS: Bolt of Cobargo (11) is the danger along with Horatius Speculo (10).

ROUGHIE: Fancy Another (1) can fill a place from the draw.

RATINGS: 8-10 11-1 3 6 7 -2 4 5 9

SUGGESTED BET: Unmatched 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 8-10 11-field $20 flexi 125%- 8-field-10 11 $16 flexi 100%

LIKELY LEADER: Resurgent Hunger and Our Willow will be looking to push forward.

RACE 2: 13:34pm Pfeiffer Cranes Stakes 2150m

This is for the up to 49 rated pacers and its looks an even race. STRAWBERRY BLING (2) has been racing well and draws best of the major chances so as long as takes advantage on it will take plenty of beating. CARUSO STAR (6) was a handy winner last time so despite the draw will be thereabouts as will his stablemate AURORA REASON (11) who’s racing well. I WANT IT ALL (4), LAID BEACK KENNY (8) and KIAVINO STRIDE (9) are a trio to include for the wider exotic placings.

TOP PICK: Strawberry Bling (2) is the one they have to beat.

DANGERS: Aurora Reason (11) is the danger along with Caruso Star (6).

ROUGHIE: Laid Back Kenny (8) is the value play.

RATINGS: 2-6 8 11-3 4 5 7 8 10

SUGGESTED BET: Strawberry Bling 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2-6 8 11-field $30 flexi 125% - 2-field-6 8 11 $24 flexi 100%

LIKELY LEADER: Strawberry Bling and Heres Henry will be looking to hold their ground early.

RACE 3: 14:09pm Wing Rural Stakes 2150m

Here we have a 50-53 rated affair and it has a bit of depth. DANGER PLAY (3) showed enough at first local run to be winning a race like this as gets every chance from the draw. OUR BETTER BRO (6) draws wide but will push forward and put himself into race so is a danger. HAMMER DAN (7) is first up from Victoria with a soft draw and has four races so will be well supported. NORBET (2), MIKI SANZ (5), NIL DESPERANDUM (8) and DEBT TILL WE PART (10) are a quartet that are capable if the breaks come their way so are a must for the exotic players.

TOP PICK: Danger Play (3) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Our Better Bro (6) is a danger along with Hammer Dan (7).

ROUGHIE: Miki Sanz (5) looks the best value.

RATINGS: 3-5 6 7-1 2 8 10-9 11

SUGGESTED BET: Danger Play 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-5 6 7-1 2 5 6 7 8 $15 flexi 100%

LIKELY LEADER: Danger Play will be looking to work across early.

RACE 4: 14:44pm Barunah Stakes

This is a good 54-57 where we see handy types go around. SHEROCKS SHEROLLS (3) has been good in both wins of late and from the draw will get on speed early and take plenty of beating. CHEETAH LODGE (10) has hit his straps of late and despite drawing out back he will get his chance to get over the top late. MUZZAME MATE (1) was brilliant two starts back before finding one better last time. He draws the pole so if happens to boot through his chances are enhanced. WATCH IT HAPPEN (5), KERALA STAR (7) and DONNY IN PARIS (8) are a trio to include for the minor exotic placings.

TOP PICK: Cheetah Lodge (10) going his way at the better value.

DANGERS: Sherocks Sherolls (3) is the danger along with Muzzame Mate (1).

ROUGHIE: Donny In Paris (8) can fill a place at odds.

RATINGS: 10-1 3-5 7 8-2 6 9 11

SUGGESTED BET: Cheetah Lodge 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 10-1 3-1 3 5 7 8 $20 flexi 250%

LIKELY LEADER: Sherocks Sherolls will be looking to cross Muzzame Memate early.

RACE 5: 15:19pm Ladbrokes Racing Club Pace 2150m

This is for the 64-74 pacers where the inform JAMES IN CHARGE (3) looks well placed. He will look to settle on speed and then out sprint his rivals late. INDELIBLE (1) should get the soft trip behind the leader and if the gap comes will go close. VINCENZO (2) has the draw to use his early speed and if finds the top can give some cheek. JO AN JO (4), FLEETWOOD ROCK (7) and MISTA EAGLE (9) are a trio to include for the wider exotic placings.

TOP PICK: James In Charge (3) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Indelible (1) is a danger along with Vincenzo (2).

ROUGHIE: Mista Eagle (9) is always a chance in these races.

RATINGS: 3-1 2 4 8 9-5 6 8 10

SUGGESTED BET: James In Charge 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-1 2 8 9-1 2 4 7 8 9 $20 flexi 100% - 3-1 2 4 7 8 9-1 2 8 9 $20 flexi 100%

LIKELY LEADER: Vincenzo will look for the early lead off Indelible.

RACE 6: 15:59pm Ladbrokes Tasmanian Country Championship 2150m

This is a race for the 3yo’s and brings together a handy field. JUST JAYDO (8) has looked at handy at both local runs and from his good trailing draw will get his chance to get over the top late. MISS DUTTON (2) is racing well and draws to advantage so if she can work to the early lead they might not catch her. SMOKESCREEN (9) will get a good trip into the race and has showed his got the ability to win a race of this class. PETALI BEACH (3) enjoyed the drop in class when was able to lead throughout but will find this harder so placing looks best as it does for ROCK AMOUR (1) and FEELINKINDALUCKY (4) who can fil a minor first four spot.

TOP PICK: Miss Dutton (2) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Just Jaydo (8) is the danger along with Smokescreen (9).

ROUGHIE: Petali Beach (3) is next best.

RATINGS: 2-3 8 9-1 4-5 6 7

SUGGESTED BET: Miss Dutton 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2-3 8 9-3 8 9 $18 flexi 300% - First Four 2-3 8 9-3 8 9-1 3 4 8 9 $18 flexi 100%

LIKELY LEADER: Miss Dutton will be looking to work across early.

RACE 7: 16:32pm Westwood Quarry Stakes 2150m

This is the open class race of the day and brings a handy field together. GLENLEDI ELVIS (10) was good last week doing the work so if can ping early and get up and around them they will struggle to get past him. ALL BY MYSELF (9) will be looking to get cover into the race as can sprint quickly and will be dangerous. KEAYANG FITZY (11) is working back to form and is the value play if steps early. ROYAL APPOINTMENT (6) and MAGNETIC TERROR (12) are next best and if the above found trouble they can capitalise.

TOP PICK: Glenledi Elvis (10) is the one to beat.

DANGERS: All by Myself (9) is the danger along with Keayang Fitzy (11).

ROUGHIE: Royal Appointment (6) if steps early is the value play.

RATINGS: 10-6 9 11 12-3 4 5 7 8-1 2

SUGGESTED BET: Glenledi Elvis 4units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 10-6 9 11 12-6 9 11 12 $30 flexi 250%

LIKELY LEADER: Diamonds N Cash and Rockandahardplace could ping across early.

RACE 8: 17:07pm S & M Horse Transport Pace 2150m

Here we have a race for the 3yo and older pacers. MISS COLLANN (2) is racing well and has the draw to be on pace throughout so will get every chance. MACH MAJOR (1) won well last time and comes up with the pole so will be looking to hold them out early and from can take catching. JORJE STREET (9) has a good trailing draw so will push through and settle just behind them so will get his chance to get over the top late. DIDYALOUSAROOSTA (4) is better than his numerical form reads so keep safe. OUR MIKI DIVA (3) and JUSTIFY (7) are a couple to include for the wider exotic placings.

TOP PICK: Jorje Street (9) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Mach Major (1) is the danger along with Miss Collann (2).

ROUGHIE: Justify (7) is the value play.

RATINGS: 9-1 2 4-3 7 11-5 6 10

SUGGESTED BET: Jorge Street 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 9-1 2-1 2 3 4 7 11 $20 flexi 200% - 9-1 2 3 4 7 11-1 2 $15 flexi 150%

LIKELY LEADER: Miss Collann and Mach Major will duel for the early lead.

RACE 9: 17:39pm Hammond Seafood Stakes 2150m

The last is for the 58-63 rated pacers. OCTAGONISE (1) comes up with the pole but is no certain leader but if does happen to hold up they’ll be lucky to catch him. MAJOR LESTER (10) is forever the bridesmaid but will win one soon so keep safe. SHOOIN (4) is a tough customer so will look to get up on speed and will keep whacking away. PUNTARNO STRIDE (7), MISTER FINNIGAN (8) and BELIEVE IN FOREVER (11) are a trio racing well and should get the right types of runs so include for the wider exotic placings and can also add IDEN BLACK PRINCE (6) despite the draw.

TOP PICK: Octagonise (1) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Major Lester (10) is the danger along with Shooin (4).

ROUGHIE: Mister Finnigan (8) looks the best value.

RATINGS: 1-4 7 8 10-6 11-2 5 9

SUGGESTED BET: Octagonise 2units win- Major Lester 1unit win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 10-1 10- 4 6 7 8 11 $20 flexi 200% - 1 10-4 6 7 8 11-1 10 $15 flexi 150%

LIKELY LEADER: Octagonise will look to hold Shooin early.