Melton, Friday 27 December
Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: KYVALLEY MISTY (5) broke stride on the first turn and lost approximately 20m then recovered nicely when a game second behind WINNIES DREAM (4) in the Preview of this event. She won at Melton three starts ago and will take beating if she delivers a fool proof display. WINNIES DREAM (4) is shooting for a winning hat trick and is a big chance of completing the task. She led throughout to win the Preview and is a good chance of finding the front again. PROMISE DREAM (1) has been placed in both of her starts since resuming and looms as one of the leading chances again. GREAT HORIZON (2) appears to be the next best for First Four punters.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader)
SELECTIONS: KYVALLEY MISTY (5), WINNIES DREAM (4), PROMISE DREAM (1), GREAT HORIZON (2)
RATINGS: 5/ 4/ 1/ 2/ 3
SUGGESTED BET: KYVALLEY MISTY (5) to win
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: OUR ROCKER (2) remains undefeated from two attempts and is a good chance of adding to his record from the perfect draw. He led throughout to win the Preview of this series last week. ATA RANGI (1) stormed home when a close second behind Maas Betting Again at Melton then tried hard behind OUR ROCKER (2) last week. He is ideally drawn and is a strong Quinella chance again. ALFREDJOHNCRUSADER (5) battled on fairly well for third at Ballarat. His trial form prior was okay and he is a place chance again. NICE ONE CENTURION (6) is also a minor place hope despite being drawn widely.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1
SELECTIONS: OUR ROCKER (2), ATA RANGI (1), ALFREDJOHNCRUSADER (5), NICE ONE CENTURION (6)
RATINGS: 2/ 1,5/ 6/ 3/ 4
SUGGESTED BET: OUR ROCKER (2) to win
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: EXASPERATION (5) attempted to lead throughout at his debut and was run down by MAXIMEZ (2) on the line. His trial form prior was sound and he should have benefited from the run so he is capable of turning the tables. MAXIMEZ (2) gained a nice trail and finished off fast to win the Preview. This is the same field so he must be considered as a winning chance again. EL BRAVO (9) has ability but is still learning and has broken stride in all of his three starts to date. He can be competitive if he delivers a fool proof display. KVINTET HILL (4) trailed the leader and battled on quite well when third at Ballarat so he is worth a place ticket again.
EARLY SPEED: 5 (likely leader), 1,4
SELECTIONS: EXASPERATION (5), MAXIMEZ (2), EL BRAVO (9), KVINTET HILL (4)
RATINGS: 2,5/ 9/ 4/ 1,6
SUGGESTED BET: EXASPERATION (5) to win
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: TOUGH SHAZ (7) drew on the inside of the second line, moved around to find the lead mid-race and scored comfortably in her heat. She has won three of her five starts to date and is clearly the horse to beat again. BEAT SWEET (1) ran a reasonable race for third at her first run since March and is better drawn for this assignment so she must be included amongst the leading chances. ULTIMATE JOY (2) led out then took cover when second at Ballarat and is drawn to receive a similar trip so she is a definite place chance again. JILLIBY ILLUSION (3) and JAZZY MELEA (6) are both worth thought in multiple combinations.
EARLY SPEED: 7 (likely leader), 1,2
SELECTIONS: TOUGH SHAZ (7), BEAT SWEET (1), ULTIMATE JOY (2), JILLIBY ILLUSION (3)
RATINGS: 7/ 1,2/ 3/ 6
SUGGESTED BET: TOUGH SHAZ (7) to win
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: REIGN EM IN (10) produced a big performance when he dashed home in a slick final half of 55.5 seconds and scored at Bendigo last week. He has won two of his past three starts and will prove hard to beat again. JAY BEE (9) dragged a flat tyre and had excuses when eighth at Geelong. She has won five races for the season and is usually competitive against this class so is worth another chance. GOODTIME MACH (2) is perfectly drawn over the very short trip of 1200m and he possesses early speed so he must be respected. OUR KINKY BOOTS (3) and BRAEBEACH (4) have both been placed over the 1200m previously so they cannot be discarded.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 4,5,9,10
SELECTIONS: REIGN EM IN (10), JAY BEE (9), GOODTIME MACH (2), BRAEBEACH (4)
RATINGS: 10/ 2,9/ 4/ 3/ FIELD
SUGGESTED BET: REIGN EM IN (10) to win
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: TICTOK (11) has gait issues but she has struck a purple patch of form and is trotting very consistently at the moment having been placed at her past five attempts. She won comfortably at Bendigo then followed with a third behind Kings Guard in the Elmore Cup last outing. FREMARKSTILLY (4) is stepping up in class from her past two victories but she won with plenty in reserve after racing without cover throughout at Geelong last outing so she is capable of taking the next step forward. DESIGNER VICI (7) is resuming since being unplaced in the Super Series Final at Melton in September but he performed extremely well at the Melton trials last week so he must be respected. YOU NO ILL BE LATE (5) finished unplaced in the Elmore Cup last outing and might find this assignment to be a little easier. He is a place chance along with AUSSIE MUSCLE (8).
EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 1,2,5
SELECTIONS: TICTOK (11), FREMARKSTILLY (4), DESIGNER VICI (7), YOU NO ILL BE LATE (5)
RATINGS: 11/ 4,7/ 5/ 8/ FIELD
SUGGESTED BET: TICTOK (11) to win
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: CLAUDY AN GUS (1) is stepping up in class but he recorded a slick mile rate of 1.56.5 at Melton last outing and he is drawn to lead again over the sprint distance so he is capable of taking the next step forward. MOJITO MADNESS (8) is a short course specialist and is drawn to trail the leader so he must be included amongst the leading chances. He hasn’t finished further back than fourth at his past eight attempts. DESTRIER (9) is racing in career best form and should be hitting the line strongly. He was held up for a run at a vital stage and stormed home for third behind the in-form mare Perfidious Sue last outing. SUGA DADDY (4) will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and should make his presence felt.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 2,3,4
SELECTIONS: CLAUDY AN GUS (1), MOJITO MADNESS (8), DESTRIER (9), SUGA DADDY (4)
RATINGS: 1/ 8,9/ 4/ 6,10/ 11
SUGGESTED BET: MOJITO MADNESS (8) each way
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: POPCORNFRIDAY (9) raced without cover when a big winner in a mile rate of 1.55.4 at Melton then followed with a nose second behind Likeable Rogue. He took on a strong field and worked hard early before being shuffled back in the field mid-race at his latest unplaced performance so he is worth another chance. NINEDOLLA TOASTIE (1) is racing in good form and is capable of sprinting to the line quickly with the right trail forward so she is perfectly drawn to suit her racing pattern. She missed out narrowly in a slick mile rate of 1.54.7 at Cranbourne last outing. ALFNALMA (3) possesses a powerful finishing burst and was very unlucky at her latest eighth behind Rabada so she is worth a ticket each way. LUVA SCRAP (5), JAMES GARNER (8), MIKI MAHONEY (10) and JUDES DUDE (11) are all capable of showing up without surprising.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1,4,5
SELECTIONS: POPCORNFRIDAY (9), NINEDOLLA TOASTIE (1), ALFNALMA (3), JAMES GARNER (8)
RATINGS: 9/ 1,3/ 8/ 5,10,11/ 2
SUGGESTED BET: POPCORNFRIDAY (9) each way
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: REPELLING (9) is returning from two unplaced efforts in New South Wales, where he took on top opposition at Menangle. He performs best over the sprint distance and will appreciate a drop back in class so he should prove hard to beat against this line up. SEVE (4) attempted to lead throughout when a close up fourth behind Ozzie Punta last week. He had little luck when sixth prior and the drop back in distance is a definite advantage so he must be respected. DIAMOND ECLIPSE (8) was held up for a run over the latter stages and had something in reserve when an unlucky seventh at Melton last week. He has a very awkward draw but he appears to be well placed under these conditions. GIVE DAVE A WAVE (2), QUADDIE VC (3) and MONA MIA (10) are all capable of showing up without surprising.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely early leader), 3,4,5
SELECTIONS: REPELLING (9), SEVE (4), DIAMOND ECLIPSE (8), MONA MIA (10)
RATINGS: 9/ 4/ 8,10/ 2,3
SUGGESTED BET: REPELLING (9) each way
Race 10:
OVERVIEW: JESSICAS STORY (4) is a fast beginner and races best over the sprint distance so she gets into this race nicely. She defeated CHRISTMAS BABE (3) at St Arnaud on November 10 and has performed consistently since so she warrants respect. CHRISTMAS BABE (3) will utilize her brilliant gate speed to find the lead and continues to build on her consistent record against this class. She led when a close second behind Velvetnlace at Bendigo last week. FLOATING MOUNTAIN (5) will appreciate a drop back in class on his latest unplaced run in the Bacchus Marsh Cup so he is not without a chance. AGAINST THE BRIDLE (2) attempted to lead throughout when a close second at Maryborough last outing. He has been placed in four of his past five starts and should go well again. There are many other winning chances in an open race to end the program.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 2,4
SELECTIONS: JESSICAS STORY (4), CHRISTMAS BABE (3), FLOATING MOUNTAIN (5), AGAINST THE BRIDLE (2)
RATINGS: 3,4/ 2,5/ 7/ FIELD
SUGGESTED BET: JESSICAS STORY (4) each way
