Burnie, Friday 8 November
Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt
Burnie 8th November
We head to Burnie on Friday night for an eight event card and it look’s a tough punting card.
There are no real standouts but happy to have a play at e/w odds with the first of those being Gobsmacked in race one.
Queenofdance looks a good gamble in race six.
Messerati is working up to a win and if can ping early will give a great sight in race seven.
RACE 1: 17:25pm Let Me Plan It Events Pace 2500m
The first of the night is a 55 or better stand over the long trip. GOBSMACKED (3) will be value and looks well placed so with a safe beginning will get every chance. GOTTAHAVEAHOBBIE (2) was able to lead throughout last time around here so is sure to look to do similar so has to be included. ONEHANDONEBOUNCE (4) the start will be crucial as if pinged across from the top of the track his chances are enhanced. CRACK THE VAULT (5) will find this easier than past few so despite the 10m has to be kept safe. BEAST MODE (1) resumes off the pole so the start is crucial to his chances.
TOP PICK: Gobsmacked (3) leaning his way in a tough one.
DANGERS: Onehandonebounce (4) looks a danger along with Crack the Vault (5).
ROUGHIE: Beast Mode (1) if pings will give some cheek.
RATINGS: 3-1 2 4 5-6
SUGGESTED BET: Gobsmacked 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-1 2 4 5-field $20 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Gottahaveahobbie will look to hold Gobsmacked and Onehandonebounce early.
RACE 2: 17:55pm Besser Engineering Pace 2180m
This is a 3yo and older under mobile conditions. ALL ABOUT IVY (2) was going to go close last time before going rough so look for her to be on speed throughout and looks hard to beat. ORAVIOR (7) will follow her through so should be close enough to be dangerous late. KINGOFTHEKLONDIKE (1) is on debut for local trainer Doc Gillies and did trial ok so will pay to look for a market move as a better guide. MAJOR IDEAL (6) and OBLER (8) have had many chances in these maiden races and will one soon. JILLIBY SORRENTO (5) is next best.
TOP PICK: All About Ivy (2) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Oravior (7) is a danger along with Kingoftheklondike (1).
ROUGHIE: Major Ideal (6) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 2-1 6 7 8-5-3 4
SUGGESTED BET: All About Ivy 2units win- Kingoftheklondike 1unit win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2-1 5 6 7 8-1 5 6 7 8 $20 flexi 100% - 1-2 5 6 7 8-2 5 6 7 8 $10 flexi 50%
LIKELY LEADER: All About Ivy and Kingoftheklondike will battle for tehe arly lead.
RACE 3: 18:25pm Greg Rawlings Bulldozing Pace 2180m
This is for the up to 44 rated pacers. HORRIE OTARA (3) had every chance last time but this is easier and gets the draw to push forward and if finds the lead he will take catching. Stablemate IM QUITE AMERICAN (5) was good last time and despite the draw will take holding out with a repeat effort. MY ULTIMATE JACKO (7) will look to push through early and if settles close enough can round them up. BRIAN WHO (6) and MACHS MARETA (8) are a couple to include for the wider exotic placings.
TOP PICK: Im Quite American (5) just going his way.
DANGERS: Horrie Otara (3) is a danger along with My Ultimate Jacko (7).
ROUGHIE: Machs Mareta (8) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 5-3 7-2 4 6 8-1
SUGGESTED BET: Im Quite American 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 5-3 7-2 3 4 6 7 8 $20 flexi 200% - 5-2 3 4 6 7 8-3 7 $15 flexi 150%
LIKELY LEADER: Horrie Otara will be looking to work across Tigerlicious.
RACE 4: 18:50pm MA & LJ Bates Plumbing Pace 2180m
This is for the 45-54 rated pacers from the mobile. OPPSWILLREV (3) is taking on the older horses but she has showed enough ability to measure up so looks hard to beat. KELLYS DELIGHT (1) gets the draw to figure as should be able to boot through and will take catching. CINOCAL JAMANE (7) and SAPPHIRE GAMBLER (8) are both racing well and will be looking to push through early and will take holding out. LAID BACK KENNY (6) draws to get a soft trip so cam run into a placing along with CHEETAH LODGE (9) who is first up in the State.
TOP PICK: Oopswillrev (3) just leaning her way.
DANGERS: Kellys Delight (1) is the danger along with Sapphire Gambler (8).
ROUGHIE: Laid Back Kenny (6) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 3-1 6 7 8-2 4 5 9
SUGGESTED BET: Oopswillrev 3units win- Kellys Delight 1unit win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-1 6 7 8-1 6 7 8 $24 flexi 200% - 1-3 6 7 8-3 6 7 8 $12 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Kellys Delight will look to hold Oopswillrev early.
RACE 5: 19:25pm Leigh Pinner Farm Pace 2180m
This is a stand for the up to 44 rated pacers. QUEENOFDANCE (6) has been racing well around here and will be again as should settle close enough to get every chance. WHATTA GOOD REASON (4) did lead throughout last time and if happens to ping away and work to the lead his chances are enhanced. ARTS CLASSIC (1) and ELENNA (2) are the two off the front so if either lobbed on top their chances are enhanced. KENS CHIPS (3) and TAXI METER (5) are couple to include as ae more than capable.
TOP PICK: Queenofdance (6) happy to go her way.
DANGERS: Arts Classic (1) looks a danger along with Whatta Good Reason (4).
ROUGHIE: Kens Chips (3) is the best value.
RATINGS: 6-1 2 3 4 5-7 8
SUGGESTED BET: Queenofdance 2units win – Kens Chips 1unit win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3 6-1 2 3 4 5 6-1 2 3 4 5 6 $30 flexi 75%
LIKELY LEADER: Arts Classic will look to take advantage of his draw.
RACE 6: 19:55pm NWTLHA Cup 2500m
This is the feature the NWTLHA Cup under stand start conditions. JIMMY THE IRISHMAN (4) was a beaten favourite in this race last year so will be looking to make amends and looks to get his chance from his front line draw. JUST TIGER (1) is a promising type who will need to step which is a query for me but if goes away he has the motor to be a player. MESSERATI (2) is the value play especially if can ping to the early lead so is worth a small play. ROYAL APPOINTMENT (7) continues to race well and only needs a bit of luck early to be in the finish. WE SALUTE YOU (3) and ALL FOR DAVE (8) are both capable if the breaks come their way at the right time so include.
TOP PICK: Messerati (2) will be value and happy to have a small play.
DANGERS: Jimmy the Irishman (4) looks a danger along with Just Tiger (1).
ROUGHIE: All for Dave (8) has the ability so watch the market.
RATINGS: 2 4-1 3 7 8-5 6 9 10
SUGGESTED BET: Jimmy the Irishman 2units win- Messerati 1unit win.
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 4-1 2 3 7 8-1 2 3 7 8 $20 flexi 100% - 2-1 3 4 7 8-1 3 4 7 8 $10 flexi 50%
LIKELY LEADER: Messerati will be looking to hold Jimmy the Irishman early.
RACE 7: 20:25pm Vincent Funeral Services Pace 1892m
Here we have a 45 or better stand and its an even affair. RANIERI (4) was impressive here recently and only needs a similar trip to repeat the dose so looks hardest to beat. GRINNING AGAIN (5) should get the trip to get every chance so look for him to finish strongly late. ALBERIO (2) and SMOOTH DEAL (3) will be looking to ping on top early so will give some cheek over the short trip. LALIBELA (1) draws the pole so has to be included.
TOP PICK: Grinning Again (5) this looks his best chance to get a win.
DANGERS: Ranieri (5) is a danger along with Alberio (2).
ROUGHIE: Lalibela (1) looks the best at value.
RATINGS: 5-1 2 3 4-6
SUGGESTED BET: Grinning Again 2units win.
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 5-1 2 3 4-1 2 3 4 6 $24 flexi 150%
LIKELY LEADER: Alberio will look to hold Smooth Deal.
RACE 8 21:00pm Choices Flooring 2180m
The last of the night is for the 3yo and older pacers. CEE TEE CHELSEA (5) should be ready to produce her best after two runs back so despite the draw will take holding out. KEAYANG WOLFPACK (2) will look to push forward and if gets across will enhances his chances. MIKIYOURSOFINE (1) walked out last time so unless he can gather a bit more speed will get shuffled back but if was able to hold them out can win. FEELINKINDALUCKY (3) resumes so will more than likely need the run but has gate speed so can make it interesting early. FORSAKEN ME (6) and MEMPHIS (7) are a couple to include for the exotics.
TOP PICK: Cee Tee Chelsea (5) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Keayang Wolfpack (2) is the danger along with Mikiyoursofine (1).
ROUGHIE: Memphis (7) sneaky chance at odds.
RATINGS: 5-1 2 7-3 4 6
SUGGESTED BET: Cee Tee Chelsea 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 5-1 2 6 7-1 2 6 7 $24 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Keayang Wolfpack will be looking to find the early lead.
