Hobart, Friday 18 October

Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt

 

 

Hobart 18th October 

We head to Hobart on Friday night where we see the Heats of the Two Year Old Sires Stakes for the Fillies and the Colts and Geldings which is clearly the highlight.

The second heat for the fillies is the strongest with The Bride and Smooth Reason renewing their rivalry which will be a great clash I lean to the former from the pole.

Miss Dutton looks to find a winnable race if she is close to her best in race one.

Ohana By The Sea finds a winnable race at her first local run and should be winning race three.

Yareckon Im Sweet can give some cheek in race seven at e/w odds.

The best value comes up in the last being Shaun to the Max.

RACE 1: 18:17pm Cavalor Equicare Pace 1609m

The first of the night is for the 3yo and older pacers. MISS DUTTON (3) was a strong winner before going for a break and looks to find a winnable race so will take plenty of holding out. WILD RUMMY (4) is consistent who also resumes and brings the right form that can see him make a winning return. IDEN KAMAKAZI (7) was disappointing last time but gets his chance to bounce back so include. SPORTZSILK (2) and PEANUT SUTTER (5) round out the winning chances and wouldn’t shock

TOP PICK: Miss Dutton (3) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Wild Rummy (4) is the danger along with Peanut Sutter (5).

ROUGHIE: Sportzsilk (2) draws to give some cheek.

RATINGS: 3-4 5 7-2-1 6

SUGGESTED BET: Miss Dutton 3units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-2 4 5 7-2 4 5 7 $24 flexi 200%

LIKELY LEADER: Sportzsilk can be first to the pegs then take cover.

RACE 2: 18:45pm Ladbrokes Bet Ticker Pace 2090m

This is a race for the fillies and mares where SHES A TINY DANCER (7) will be looking to bounce back into the winners list. She has high speed so tactics will be interesting but either way looks the hardest to beat. JILLIBY MENDOZA (6) chased hard last time but was no match for the winner but this easier so is a major player. ASHANTE QUEEN (4) and SVITOLINA LEIS (5) have been close up of late and will be again so are a must for the exotic placings along with SUE NIEN (1) from the pole.

TOP PICK: Jilliby Mendoza (6) will go her way at the better odds.

DANGERS: Shes a Tiny Dancer (7) is the danger along with Ashante Queen (4) to a lesser extent.

ROUGHIE: Sue Nien (1) is the best at odds.

RATINGS: 6-7-4 5-1-2 3

SUGGESTED BET: Jilliby Mendoza 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 6-7-1 4 5 $15 flexi 500%

LIKELY LEADER: Shes a Tiny Dancer can cross if they push the button early.

RACE 3: 19:18pm Prydes Easifeed Evicus Heat One 1609m

This is the first heat of the 2yo fillies Sires Stakes and it is the weaker of the two. OHANA BY THE SEA (3) comes across from Victoria where she was good on debut in solid time so resuming here and from the draw looks hard to beat. ITSMENOTU (5) is a handy filly and looks to find a winnable race look for to be there at the business end. ISLA ATHENA (7) draws wide but will be around the mark as this is easier than recent runs. ARK MELODY (6) will race on speed and will keep battling away so include. OUR WILLOW (1), SMILING MIA (2) and SHEZALLLOLLIES (4) are all on debut who have trialed ok so wouldn’t entirely shock if they figured in the finish.

TOP PICK: Ohana By the Sea (3) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Itsmenotu (5) is the danger along with Isla Athena (7).

ROUGHIE: Ark Melody (6) is the value play.

RATINGS: 3- 5 6 7-1 2 4

SUGGESTED BET: Ohana by the Sea 3units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-5 6 7-1 2 4 5 6 7 $30 flexi 200%

LIKELY LEADER: Ohana by the Sea will be looking to push through.

RACE 4: 19:49pm Prydes Easifeed Evicus Heat Two 1609m

This is the second heat and by far the stronger where the marbles have fallen the way of THE BRIDE (1). She has won her past four and has the draw to lead or take a sit either way she is the one to beat. SMOOTH REASON (4) has won her last two since running second to the above in quick time and has shown she can do work so is big danger. BARBARY TALES (2) will get a soft trip on back of the speed so can place. BRIDWOOD SUE (3) and TULLAH GIRL (5) both come through the same trial where they only dashed home but do have ability so wouldn’t shock.

TOP PICK: The Bride (1) draws to be the one to beat.

DANGERS: Smooth Reason (4) is the huge danger along with Barbary Tales (2).

ROUGHIE: Barbary Tales (5) can fill a place.

RATINGS: 1-4-2 3 5

SUGGESTED BET: The Bride 5units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-4-2 $20 flexi 2000% - First four 1-4-2-3 5 $10 flexi 500%

LIKELY LEADER: The Bride has the speed to hold up.

RACE 5: 20:15pm Prydes Easifeed Dandy Patch Prelude 2090m

This is the prelude of the 2yo Sire Stakes for the Colts and Geldings and this is a much more open Series where the Craig Turnbull trained OKANUI BEACH (7) creates plenty of interest. He has been close up good races so if he runs up to his recent form he can overcome the draw and win. STONE WRITER (8) is a good type but the draw is not ideal but if follows through and gets the gap he has the speed run over the top of his rivals. POST LAZARUS (1) continues to improve and draws the pole so will look to settle on speed and can figure. FLYING VINNIE (9) comes off a freshen up and you can forgive his latest run he comes into contention along with MEL RUSTY KITA (3), IDEN REGAL WAVE (5) and HES FIRST CLASS (6).

TOP PICK: Okanui Beach (7) happy to go his way despite the draw as long goes forward.

DANGERS: Stone Writer (8) is the big danger along with Flying Vinnie (9).

ROUGHIE: Post Lazarus (1) has a chance at odds.

RATINGS: 7 8-1 9-3 5 6-2 11-4 10

SUGGESTED BET: Okanui Beach 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 7 8-7 8-1 3 5 6 9 $25 flexi 250% - 7 8-1 3 5 6 9-7 8 $20 flexi 200%

LIKELY LEADER: Post Lazarus will look to hold early.

RACE 6: 20:47pm Tasmanian Horse Transport Pace 1609m

This is for the 50-54 rated pacers and last start winner REMEMBER ME NOW (6) will be looking to zoom across early and give his rivals plenty to chase. MIKI SANZ (5) is nearing another win and will look to push forward once the pace settles and is capable of sitting parked and still win. FIVE STAR SHARK (3) can run the gate and will look to push forward so will be interesting early with Remember Me Now who actually finds the lead. MIKISPUR (10) will appreciate a solid tempo up front so look for him to be getting home hard. NO NUKES SKIPPER (11) is well placed in this field and he comes right into calculations as will be getting home hard. ROCKS ROY (2) CAPTAIN DAN (7), JUMPING JOLT (9) and ROYAL REACTOR (12) are a quartet to include for the wider exotic placings.

TOP PICK: Miki Sanz (5) happy to go his way e/w.

DANGERS: No Nukes Skipper (11) is the danger along with Remember Me Now (6).

ROUGHIE: Rocks Roy (2) can place at odds.

RATINGS: 5-6 10 11-2 3 7 9 12-4 8-1

SUGGESTED BET: Miki Sanz and No Nukes Skipper 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 5 11-2 3 5 6 9 10 11-2 3 5 6 9 10 11 $30 flexi 50%

LIKELY LEADER: Five Star Shark and Remember Me Now will be both be looking for the top.

RACE 7: 21:20pm More Confidence Consulting Pace 2090m

This is for the 55-59 pacers and where we see the return of smart 3yo BETTABLACK TIGER (1). He created a huge impression in his first campaign and comes up with the pole so despite likely being crossed early with average luck will be too good for his rivals. YARECKON IM SWEET (3) was dominant winner last week and if brings that effort will be a danger as looks the leader. GOBSMACKED (8) and KENYA (9) both draws the second row but that will allow them to push through early and settle close enough to fill a placing. MUCHO MOVER (2) and MAJOR LESTER (11) are also capable of running into some of the minor money at odds.

TOP PICK: Bettablack Tiger (1) is the one they have to beat.

DANGERS: Yareckon Im Sweet (3) is the danger along with Gobsmacked (8).

ROUGHIE: Major Lester (11) is the best at odds.

RATINGS: 1-2 3 8 9 11-4 5 6 7 10

SUGGESTED BET: Yareckon Im Sweet 1unit win-2units place

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-3-2 8 9 11 $16 flexi 400%- 1-2 8 9 11-3 $12 flexi 300% / 3-1-2 8 9 11 $8 flexi 200%- 3-2 8 9 11-1 $6 flexi 150%

LIKELY LEADER: Yareckon Im Sweet will be looking to cross early.

RACE 8 21:47pm Fehlbergs Produce Sprintlane Pace 2090m

The last of the night is for the up to 49 pacers where BET SHEZA LADY (1) adds some interest off the pole as brings consistent so and is sure to make her presence felt. SHAUN TO THE MAX (6) is racing well and will look to push forward and get up on speed and will take getting past. SAPPHIRE GAMBLER (7) will also look to roll across with him and can figure. I WANT IT ALL (2) and LALIBELA (4) have been close up of late and get draws to settle close to get into the finish late so have to be kept safe. RANIERI (8) will follow and get the soft trip he likes so can add some value for the wider exotic placings.

TOP PICK: Shaun to the Max (6) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Lalibela (4) looks the danger along with Bet Sheza Lady (1).

ROUGHIE: Ranieri (8) wouldn’t shock.

RATINGS: 6-1 2 4 7-3 8 9-5

SUGGESTED BET: Shaun to the Max 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 6-1 2 3 4 7 8-1 2 3 4 7 8 $30 flexi 100%

LIKELY LEADER: Shaun to the Max and Sapphire Gambler will be looking to push forward.