Launceston, Sunday 6 October

Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt

 

Launceston 6th October

We head to Launceston on Sunday night for a competitive eight event card and as usual their will be a few shorties that should be winning and they start off in race one with Smooth Reason followed up by How Sweet in race two and Free To Play in race six

Waterfront faces her toughest test in race three but will give them plenty to chase.

Ultimate Mod and Iden Kamakazi look very hard to beat in races four and five from the perfect draw.

Iden Black Prince will take plenty of holding out in the last.

RACE 1: 18:07pm Ladbrokes Own Spring Two Year Old 1680m

The first of the night is a 20k feature for the 2yo’s and SMOOTH REASON (4) is clearly the one to beat. She got the job done and beat her main rival here so that should see her prove too strong. GRIMSHAW BAY (3) will give her plenty to chase and will be fitter for that run so will make a race of it. JOES PLACE (1) was an improver last time and maps to get the run that can see him get close. SMILING MIA (2) is on debut from the Ray Pullen stable but a placing looks best.

TOP PICK: Smooth Reason (4) is clear top pick.

DANGERS: Grimshaw Bay (3) is the danger along with Joes Place (1).

ROUGHIE: Smiling Mia (1) rounds out the field.

RATINGS: 4-1 3-2

SUGGESTED BET: Smooth Reason 4units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 4-1-3 $20 flexi 2000% - First Four 4-1-3-2 $10 flexi 1000%

LIKELY LEADER: Grimshaw Bay will be looking for the lead.

RACE 2: 18:44pm Ladbrokes Fast Withdrawal Pace 2200m

This is for the 3yo and older and the impressive HOW SWEET (5) is looking to make it four in a row. She has proven of late that she in versatile so its hard to see her being beaten. CAMELOT JEDIMASTER (3) is a handy type resuming and will be the danger from the draw. JILLIBY MENDOZA (1) will be better for her first up run and has drawn to get every chance to run the exacta placing. HURRICANE ROCK (4) can fill the minor first four placing.

TOP PICK: How Sweet (5) should be winning.

DANGERS: Jilliby Mendoza (1) looks the danger along with Camelot Jedimaster (3).

ROUGHIE: Hurricane Rock (4) best of the rest.

RATINGS: 5-1 3-4-2 6

SUGGESTED BET: How Sweet 8units win.

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 5-1-3- $20 flexi 2000% - First Four 5-1-3-4 $10 flexi 1000%

LIKELY LEADER: Jilliby Mendoza will look to hold up and then let How Sweet find the top.

RACE 3: 19:17pm Find Us On Facebook Stakes 2200m

This is for the 75-105 rated pacers and the progressive filly WATERFRONT (1) will be looking to extend her winning streak but this is by far her toughest test but from the pole gets every chance and her times of late are up to this class. KEAYANG FITZY (8) doesn’t no how to run a bad race and has the draw to follow behind the above and if gets a crack can win. GLENLEDI ELVIS (7) was impressive at first local outing but this is harder so will be interesting how he measures up. KIVIK (3) has his hoof on the till and is the best at odds. ROCKANDAHARDPLACE (4) and MAGNETIC TERROR (5) are capable of figuring if the breaks come their way.

TOP PICK: Waterfront (1) draws to be the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Keayang Fitzy (8) is the big danger along with Glenledi Elvis (7)

ROUGHIE: Kivik (3) is the best at odds.

RATINGS: 1-8-3 7-4 5-6-2

SUGGESTED BET: Waterfront 3units win- Kivik 1unit win 2units place.

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 3 8-3 8 $20 flexi 1000% - 3 8-1 3 8-1 3 8 $12 flexi 300%

LIKELY LEADER: Waterfront will be looking to hold them.

RACE 4: 19:46pm Ladbrokes Communities Pace 2200m

Here we have a race for the 3yo and older maiden pacers. ULTIMATE MOD (1) was very good two starts back when leading so obviously races best on the pegs and should do that here so will take plenty of catching. SOHO UNDERTAKER (4) is nearing a win and despite having to do a bit of work looks a major player. OBLER (5) resumes off a freshen up and he has showed the ability to win one of these races so include. IDEN OLIVER (7) prepared to give another chance after a disappointing first up run so watch the market. ORAVIOR (2), A SHADOW OF DOUBT (8), KEAYANG WOLFPACK (9) and TELL THE BARTMAN (10) are a quartet to include for the wider exotic players.

TOP PICK: Ultimate Mod (1) happy to go with him.

DANGERS: Soho Undertaker (4) is the danger along with Obler (5).

ROUGHIE: A Shadow Of Doubt (8) can fill a placing at odds.

RATINGS: 1-2 4 5 7-3 8 9 10-6

SUGGESTED BET: Ultimate Mod 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-2 4 5 7 8 10-2 4 5 7 8 10 $30 flexi 100%

LIKELY LEADER: Ultimate Mod will be looking to hold up.

RACE 5: 20:22pm Rare Earth Stakes 2200m

This is for the 50-53 rated pacers and IDEN KAMAKAZI (1) looks well placed after a solid first up effort. He has the pole and will go close to holding up and if he does his chances are enhanced. LAID BACK (3) has had his chance of late so not sure where his at but his best is good enough. MAGOMEDOV (4) is always around the mark in this grade and will be again along with SCARLET PLACE (2), ROCK THE TABLEAU (5), SWEET AMOUR (6), GOTTAHAVEAHOBBIE (7) and MY ULTIMATE ROMEO (8) who all need to be included for the wider exotic placings.

TOP PICK: Iden Kamakazi (1) is the one to beat.

DANGERS: Laid Back (3) is a danger along with Magomedov (4).

ROUGHIE: My Ultimate Romeo (8) looks the best at odds.

RATINGS: 1-3 4 8-2 5 6 7-9 10 11

SUGGESTED BET: Iden Kamakazi 3units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-3 8-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 $24 flexi 200% - 1-2 3 4 5 6 7 8-3 8 $24 flexi 200%

LIKELY LEADER: Iden Kamakazi will look to hold Laid Back and Gottahaveahobbie early.

RACE 6: 20:56pm Tassie Golden Apple 1 December Pace 1680m

This is for the 59-64 rated pacers and another Emma Stewart is looking to extend their picket fence. FREE TO PLAY (9) has created a good impression on the Apple Isle and draws to get a good run through early so is the one to beat despite this being her toughest test. DIDYALOUSAROOSTA (11) has a handy winner first up when sitting parked and will be better for that run so is a real danger to the above despite the draw. MISTA EAGLE (1) gets the draw to give some cheek at odds so keep safe. NOVA BAXTER (5), MODERN POWER (6), MUCHO MOVER (10) and ART HUNTSMAN (12) are a quartet to include for the wider exotic placings.

TOP PICK: Free To Play (9) is the one to beat.

DANGERS: Didyalousaroosta (11) is the danger along with Mista Eagle (1).

ROUGHIE: Modern Power (6) looks the value play.

RATINGS: 9-1 6 11-5 8 10 12-3 13-2 7

SUGGESTED BET: Free to Play 4units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 9-1 6 11-1 5 6 8 10 11 12 $27 flexi 150%

LIKELY LEADER: Jeremy Wells and Modern Power will be looking to push forward.

RACE 7: 21:24pm Book Your Christmas Function With Us For 1 December Pace 2200m

This is for the 65-74 rated pacers and looks a handy race. FREEASABYRD (1) is flying and has the draw to make it four on the trot but this race has more depth so she will need to run the gate to hold them out. HIGH FLYING HARRY (5) created a good impression at his first local outing and this looks well within his grasp as will looks to settle close to the speed. SMOOTH MACHETE (4) is a good type and he will push forward and look to settle on speed and will take holding out. LETSGOBRO (6), ROYAL APPOINTMENT (7) and WE SALUTE YOU (12) are a trio to include for the wider exotic placings.

TOP PICK: High Flying Harry (5) happy to go his way at the value.

DANGERS: Freeasabyrd (1) is a huge danger along with Smooth Machete (4).

ROUGHIE: We Salute You (12) is the best at odds as should’ve nearly won last week.

RATINGS: 1-4 5-6 7 12-3 9 10-2 8 11

SUGGESTED BET: High Flying Harry 2units win- We Salute You 1unit e/w

EXOTIC BET: Boxed trifecta 1 4 5 7 12 $30 flexi 50% - 1-4 5 7 12-4 5 7 12 $15 flexi 125% - 5-1 4 7 12-1 4 7 12 $9 flexi 75%

LIKELY LEADER: Freeasabyrd will look to hold up with Smooth Machete and High Flying Harry having a good look.

RACE 8 21:52pm Tassie Wash Pace 2200m

The last of the night is for the 54-58 rated pacers and we see the return of OCTAGONISE (3) who out on a winning hat-trick. He resumes and draws handy so looks to get his chance and extend his picket fence so looks the hardest to beat. IDEN BLACK PRINCE (6) got a well deserved win last week and will be hard to hold out with a similar set up. GYPSY AMOUR (2) could be first to the pegs and if does her chances are enhanced and can fill a placing. GOBSMACKED (4), MACH ANGELO (5) and SETTEBELLO (7) are a trio more than capable if the breaks come their way so have to be included in all bet types.

TOP PICK: Iden Black Prince (6) happy to go his way.

DANGERS: Octagonise (3) is the danger along with Settebello (7).

ROUGHIE: Gobsmacked (4) will run a race at odds again.

RATINGS: 6-3-2 4 5 7-1 8

SUGGESTED BET: Iden Black Prince 2units win.

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 6-3-field $15 flexi 250% - 6-field-3 $12 flexi 200% - 6-2 4 5 7-1 2 4 5 7 8 $15 flexi 75%

LIKELY LEADER: Gypsy Amour and Settebello will be pushing forward.