Cranbourne, Sunday 1 September
Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: NOTHING SWEETER (1) endured a tough run and battled on well for fourth behind Jay Bee (won again since) then followed with an effortless victory at Ballarat. She is drawn to receive every chance and is the horse to beat again. ISLAND CAESAR (2) is a fast beginner and races best when he is able to lead. He has joined trainer Freddy Taiba since his latest unplaced effort at Mildura and was a winner on that track on May 31 so he cannot be left out of calculations. TERROROAN (10) sustained a strong run from the 500m to win at Shepparton on Tuesday and should be competitive again. PICKLE IT (6) and OLLY ODD POTTS (7) have both performed well against similar opposition recently and are worth thought again.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1,6
SELECTIONS: NOTHING SWEETER (1), ISLAND CAESAR (2), TERROROAN (10), PICKLE IT (6)
RATINGS: 1/ 2,10/ 6,7/ 9
SUGGESTED BET: NOTHING SWEETER (1) to win
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: CITY ROCKSTAR (3) is a fast beginner and should strip fitter from her first up second behind Roylance, where she led out then took cover. She has been placed in nine of her eleven starts for the season and should run her usual honest race. KATHYS FREE (4) finished off well when second behind Madam Reactor in fast time at Bendigo last outing. She has been promising a win for some time and strikes a suitable assignment now. MORVAH (5) performed below expectations last week after trailing the leader and finishing a distant fifth but he appears to be well graded for this assignment so he is worth another chance. THE JET PLAYER (1) ran a better race last week and is drawn to suit his racing pattern. TARA VICTORY (8) endured a tough trip and had little luck at Menangle last week. She is a place hope from the trailing draw.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely early leader), 1,5
SELECTIONS: CITY ROCKSTAR (3), KATHYS FREE (4), MORVAH (5), THE JET PLAYER (1)
RATINGS: 3,4/ 1,5,8/ 9
SUGGESTED BET: CITY ROCKSTAR (3) each way
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: VINCE LOMBARDI (8) is building up a consistent record and has the perfect trailing draw behind the likely leader in GOOD DAY (1) so he should prove hard to beat. He worked hard to find the lead and went down narrowly when third at Charlton last outing. GOOD DAY (1) hasn’t been at his best form since resuming but he will appreciate his best draw for some time and performs best when he is able to lead so he is a possible improver. MY WAY (3) tried hard when a close second behind Hez Harrywho at Shepparton last week. He has the early speed to obtain a prominent position and must be considered as a winning chance. IM A DENNY TOO (4) lacks solid racing with his only start this year yielding a third at Warragul in June but he would take beating in this line up if he was somewhere near his peak form.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 3,4,5,6,7
SELECTIONS: VINCE LOMBARDI (8), GOOD DAY (1), MY WAY (3), IM A DENNY TOO (4)
RATINGS: 8/ 1,3/ 4/ 2,9/ 6,7
SUGGESTED BET: VINCE LOMBARDI (8) each way
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: HES THE MIGHTYSPIN (7) is racing in sparkling form and this race is no tougher than his past three victories so he is clearly the horse to beat again. He commenced from the handicap of 10m, moved up without cover mid-race and won nicely over Fremarks Peggy at Ballarat last week. SILENT REVERIE (6) trailed the leader and was in a striking position when she broke stride on the home turn at Cranbourne last week. She attempted to lead throughout when a close second behind OUR SAFARI SUN (8) prior so she is worth another chance. NELLIE JOY (4) finished off nicely when a close second behind SUNDAYS SHADOW (5) at her latest attempt and is nearing a win against this class. SUNDAYS SHADOW (5) and OUR SAFARI SUN (8) are both racing well enough to figure in the finish.
EARLY SPEED: 7 (likely leader), 2,5,6
SELECTIONS: HES THE MIGHTYSPIN (7), SILENT REVERIE (6), NELLIE JOY (4), SUNDAYS SHADOW (5)
RATINGS: 7/ 4,6/ 5/ 8
SUGGESTED BET: HEST THE MIGHTYSPIN (7) to win
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: LUVERBOY (4) pushed forward to race without cover and proved too strong at Shepparton last week. He is a chance of finding the lead here so he must be included amongst the leading chances. LOTAKEVI (1) was held up for a run at a vital stage and finished off solidly for fourth at Yarra Valley on Monday. He is racing consistently and should go well from the pole position, even though he might end up being three back on the markers mid-race. SPUN SILVER (2) is a brilliant beginner and led throughout last week but he is a short course specialist and he is rising in distance for this assignment, which is a concern. SHADOW BEACH (5) will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and is worth thought along with LUNA DREAM (7).
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely early leader), 3,4
SELECTIONS: LUVERBOY (4), LOTAKEVI (1), SPUN SILVER (2), SHADOW BEACH (5)
RATINGS: 4/ 1,2/ 5,7/ 3/ 6,8
SUGGESTED BET: LUVERBOY (4) each way
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: YERING SOHO (6) is racing in great form and should give a forward showing. She worked hard to find the lead and finished third in a mile of 1.57.5 last outing and she produced successive victories at Cranbourne in July. PRECIOUS BELLE (7) is likely to settle in a rearward position from the extreme draw but she will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and she possesses a handy finishing burst so she is not without a chance. KARDESLER (8) galloped away and lost his chance at Cranbourne last week. He has been racing in stronger races of late so he gets his chance to improve under these conditions. OCEANIQUE (3) has been unplaced at her past three attempts but she would be a strong winning chance at her peak form so she cannot be underestimated.
EARLY SPEED: 6 (likely leader), 2,3
SELECTIONS: YERING SOHO (6), PRECIOUS BELLE (7), KARDESLER (8), OCEANIQUE (3)
RATINGS: 6/ 7/ 1,3,8/ 2/ 5/ 4
SUGGESTED BET: YERING SOHO (6) to win
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: GOODTIME STRYKER (5) attempted to lead throughout when second behind Nothing Sweeter in a mile rate of 1.58.7 at Ballarat last outing. His two runs back from a break have been sound and he is a good chance of leading throughout. GLENS OF TEKOA (7) appeared to have his chance when second at Kilmore last outing but he was defeated by a narrow margin and this race is no harder so he is worth thought again. KITCH MACRAY (3) settled three back on the markers and held his own over the latter stages when fourth behind Spun Silver last week. He is a minor place chance under these conditions. MANHATTAN LASS (2) might find this race to be a little easier than her recent efforts and can improve on her numerical form from her good draw.
EARLY SPEED: 5 (likely leader), 2,7
SELECTIONS: GOODTIME STRYKER (5), GLENS OF TEKOA (7), KITCH MACRAY (3), MANHATTAN LASS (2)
RATINGS: 5/ 7/ 2,3/ 1/ 4,6
SUGGESTED BET: GOODTIME STRYKER (5) to win
