Melton, Saturday 17 August
Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: MACH DAN (4) won under similar conditions last week when he attempted to lead early, angled in for the trail on the first turn and got home best at the end. He is a very good chance of getting across to the markers around the first corner here and will prove hard to beat again. TANGO TARA (1) won the Italian Cup in June and was successful over the sprint distance of 1200m two weeks ago. He is likely to try and kick through and trail the leader around the first corner so he must be considered as a winning chance. PERFECT CLASS (9) circled around the field to race without cover during the middle stages, hit the lead in the straight and peaked late when a close second behind Bulletproof Boy at his latest attempt. He is racing in great form and looms as one of the leading chances again. RAKERO REBEL (5) and YAMBUKIAN (7) are both performing well enough to warrant respect in a top race to commence the program.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 1,2,7
SELECTIONS: MACH DAN (4), TANGO TARA (1), PERFECT CLASS (9), RAKERO REBEL (5)
RATINGS: 4/ 1,9/ 5,7/ 3,8/ 2,12,13
SUGGESTED BET: MACH DAN (4) to win
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: ROADMASTER (10) drops back to the second line but his form has been outstanding since resuming and he is sure to make his presence felt. He led throughout in successive victories then set up a hectic tempo and was run down late in a sizzling mile rate of 1.51.0 on July 13. CLEAR LEFT (5) went back at the start from the extreme draw and held his own over the latter stages when seventh behind Smoken Ace last week. The conditions of this race are more suitable and his overall form has been outstanding so he is worth another chance. SWEETPASSION (2) possesses early speed and ended up being behind the leader when second behind Gawn at his latest attempt. This race is no harder and he is drawn to be prominent throughout. JACCKA CONNOR (1) finished third from the pole position last week so he is worth thought again.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely early leader), 1,3,4,5,7
SELECTIONS: ROADMASTER (10), CLEAR LEFT (5), SWEETPASSION (2), JACCKA CONNOR (1)
RATINGS: 10/ 2,5/ 1/ 8,11/ 7/ 3
SUGGESTED BET: ROADMASTER (10) to win
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: The outstanding 3yo filly VERY PRETTY (7) was beaten for the first time in nine starts when she made a slight error mid-race, raced fiercely and attempted to make a long run at her latest close second behind Exotic Bushranger. She has been freshened since that performance and will take beating. ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (9) settled in a rearward position and was running to the line strongly when an eye-catching third behind TILLY JAYNE (3) at her latest attempt. She is building up a good strike rate and should take holding out in the run to the finish. TILLY JAYNE (3) is racing in career best form and progressed forward to find the lead when she scored in fast time last outing. She is worth thought again from her good draw. SWEETNIKKILOU (1) is very strong and produced another top performance to win at Horsham last outing. She has claims along with SURFINGMAKESCENTS (2), which recorded a slick mile rate of 1.52.6 to win the Mares Sprint Championship over Le Belle Bijoux (won since) at her latest attempt.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,3,4,7
SELECTIONS: VERY PRETTY (7), ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (9), TILLY JAYNE (3), SWEETNIKKILOU (1)
RATINGS: - 7/ 3,9/ 1,2
SUGGESTED BET: VERY PRETTY (7) to win
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: EBONYS AVENGER (1) led out then took cover and chased hard when second behind Sundon’s Courage in the open class event at Melton last week. She will appreciate a big drop back in class and is perfectly drawn to suit her racing pattern so she will take beating. EXALTED (2) drew on the second line, progressed forward out three horses wide and ensured a genuine tempo when a brave second in a quick mile rate of 1.55.8 at Melton last week. She moves to the front line and has been placed in all of her five starts since resuming so she must be respected. KYVALLEY AMANDA (7) has a tough draw to overcome but she has struck peak form with a win over Aldebaran Miley (won since) followed by runner up performances behind More Wanted and Tweedledee. She was very unlucky last time so she warrants respect. HEPHAESTUS PHOENIX (4) and the fast beginner EL RESAMO (5) are both quality horses that are capable of showing up without surprising.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely early leader), 2,3,4,5
SELECTIONS: EBONYS AVENGER (1), EXALTED (2), KYVALLEY AMANDA (7), HEPHAESTUS PHOENIX (4)
RATINGS: 1/ 2,7/ 4,5/ 3,10
SUGGESTED BET: EBONYS AVENGER (1) to win
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: SON OF MAC (2) worked forward to find the lead and dominated his rivals to win two starts ago then worked home well at his latest second. He has performed very well at the trials since and should take beating from his good draw. HOT DEAL (4) was held up for a run at a vital stage before charging home late when an unlucky second behind Major Meister at Mildura last week. He is a tough competitor and is racing in peak form so he must be respected. EARL OF PEMBROKE (11) will be fitter after his two starts back from a break and finished off strongly when a game second behind the in-form pacer He’s From Heaven at his latest attempt. He is a quality horse and should run a good race again. GHOST OF TIME (6) ran a huge race after using plenty of energy at the start when third at Melton last outing and is worth an investment.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 6
SELECTIONS: SON OF MAC (2), HOT DEAL (4), EARL OF PEMBROKE (11), GHOST OF TIME (6)
RATINGS: 2/ 4,11/ 6/ 5,8,9
SUGGESTED BET: SON OF MAC (2) each way
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: It is a top race with many winning chances. OLIVER DAN (6) was resuming since November when he worked to the front and went down narrowly behind Le Belle Bijoux in a mile rate of 1.53.6 last week. He should be fitter from that run and should go well again. KEAYANG TOKYO (2) faces his toughest test and he hasn’t raced since winning the Warragul Cup on June 10 but he is a very smart pacer that boasts six wins from his eight starts to date. He has performed well at the trials and is drawn to be prominent throughout. The Mildura Cup winner DANGEROUS (10) is resuming since a third behind Heza Son Of Agun at Melton in May but he was an impressive trial winner at Shepparton recently so he must be rated highly. STRAVINSKY (9) didn’t have much luck from a wide draw at his Melton debut and his form in New South Wales is strong so he is worth another chance.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1,3,6
SELECTIONS: OLIVER DAN (6), KEAYANG TOKYO (2), DANGEROUS (10), STRAVINSKY (9)
RATINGS: 2,6/ 10/ 1,3,9/ 4
SUGGESTED BET: OLIVER DAN (6) each way
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: HEAD EM UP (7) joins trainer John Justice after his latest unplaced performance in the Great Square during Queensland’s Winter Carnival. He is a very talented 3yo trotter and should go well despite meeting a strong field from an awkward draw at his Victorian debut. RAPID RETURN (6) ran a cracking race for third behind I’m Bobby last week after she sprinted quickly from a long way back so she rates as a value hope. FOCUS (2) put together three wins in succession prior to a fifth in the race won by I’m Bobby last week. She possesses a powerful finishing burst and should go well again. DICHOTOMY (4) sustained a strong run to win comfortably last outing and looms as one of the leading chances again.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible early leader), 1,7
SELECTIONS: HEAD EM UP (7), RAPID RETURN (6), FOCUS (2), DICHOTOMY (4)
RATINGS: 7/ 2,6/ 4/ 5,8,9
SUGGESTED BET: HEAD EM UP (7) each way
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: Australasia’s best trotter JUST BELIEVE (4) makes his Australian return after a memorable New Zealand campaign, where he remained undefeated in four attempts with his latest victory being in the Rowe Cup. He strolled around by himself in a Melton trial two weeks ago and appears to be poised for another great campaign. ALDEBARAN ZEUS (2) sprinted very hard in the back straight on the first occasion and couldn’t find the lead so he had excuses last week. He was a big winner at Melton prior and is drawn to be prominent throughout. KEAYANG IGNITE (3) was resuming since March when he was left stranded on the outside of the leader throughout and went down fighting behind Harry Stamper. His trial form prior was strong and he has the speed to be in the finish. MUFASA METRO (6) is returning from a Queensland Winter Carnival campaign, where he finished second in the Trotters Sprint (Group 3) and third in the Queensland Trotters Cup (Group 1). He has been very competitive at Group level for several seasons and should run his usual honest race.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely early leader), 1,4,6
SELECTIONS: JUST BELIEVE (4), ALDEBARAN ZEUS (2), KEAYANG IGNITE (3), MUFASA METRO (6)
RATINGS: 4/ 2,3/ 6/ 1/ 5
SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta 4/ 2,3/ 2,3,6 (Cost $4)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: HES FROM HEAVEN (6) is widely drawn but he is shooting for six wins in succession and he defeated a field of very similar quality at Melton on July 27 so he warrants respect. He progressed forward to find the lead, hung out to the centre of the track in the straight but proved to be too good when he scored at Melton last week. SOME AMERICAN (4) and MIKI TO SUCCESS (5) finished second and third respectively behind HES FROM HEAVEN (6) on July 27 and loom as the main dangers again. WAR DAN BUDDY (3) defeated a much easier field at Melton last outing but his overall form is strong and he finished second in the Bathurst Gold Chalice Final earlier in the season so he cannot be underestimated.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely early leader), 3,4,6
SELECTIONS: HES FROM HEAVEN (6), SOME AMERICAN (4), MIKI TO SUCCESS (5), WAR DAN BUDDY (3)
RATINGS: 6/ 4,5/ 3/ 1,7/ 2
SUGGESTED BET: Boxed Trifecta 3,4,5,6 (Cost $24)
Race 10:
OVERVIEW: OPERATIVE LINE (2) is the reserve for the open class event this evening so he appears to be well placed in the final race. He won three races in succession prior to a handy finishing fifth behind Bulletproof Boy on August 03. SOHO HISTORIA (4) led out then took cover when third behind Major Delight in the Jane Ellen last outing. She is likely to push forward at the start again and should go close. JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (5) is a brilliant beginner and will take catching if he is able to get across SOHO HISTORIA (4) at the start. He recorded a slick mile rate of 1.53.2 when he scored at Melton on July 13. KOSIMO (7) possesses a powerful finishing burst and did well when fifth behind Mach Dan in the open class event last week.
EARLY SPEED: 5 (possible leader), 4
SELECTIONS: OPERATIVE LINE (2), SOHO HISTORIA (4), JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (5), KOSIMO (7)
RATINGS: 2,4,5/ 7/ 1/ 6/ 3
SUGGESTED BET: Boxed Trifecta 2,4,5,7 (Cost $24)
